黄金周度观察：2024年第23周

Group 1: Market Overview - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain promising due to potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, with expectations of a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - As of May 31, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were approximately 832.21 tons, unchanged from the previous week, while iShares Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.26 tons to 381.20 tons[8] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations driven by inflation data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the April core PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of about 2.8%, the lowest since April 2021[11] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a June interest rate cut are around 4.4%, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining the current rate[57] - As of May 31, 2024, the CME Fedwatch tool indicated an 83.8% probability of no rate change in July and a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[57] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 12.92 points as of May 31, 2024, reflecting increased market uncertainty due to geopolitical risks[59] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - As of May 28, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold rose by 6,779 contracts to 236,585 contracts[16] - Global central bank gold reserves totaled 35,938.91 tons as of May 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 111.41 tons despite a monthly decrease of 37.30 tons[63] - China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons to 2,262.45 tons, marking 17 consecutive months of accumulation[63]