Great Wall Securities·2024-06-04 07:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in its e-commerce business, with a double-digit year-on-year growth in GMV for FY24Q4, and a revenue of 932 billion yuan, representing a 3.7% increase [5][9]. - The company is focusing on a "user-first" strategy, enhancing customer service and expanding membership benefits, which has led to a significant increase in the number of 88VIP members, exceeding 35 million [5][21]. - The company is preparing for a dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, which is anticipated to enhance liquidity and investor sentiment [12][60]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The domestic e-commerce segment has stabilized, with FY24Q4 GMV showing double-digit growth and revenue reaching 4,144.14 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [46]. - Customer management revenue for FY24Q4 was 636 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while direct sales revenue decreased by 2% [46][50]. Cloud Business - The cloud business has shown signs of recovery, with FY24Q4 revenue of 256 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related services [10][57]. - The company has implemented price reductions on over a hundred public cloud products to enhance service affordability [57]. International Digital Commerce - The AIDC segment reported a revenue of 274 billion yuan for FY24Q4, a 45% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the growth of the cross-border business [39][53]. - Despite the revenue growth, the AIDC segment experienced an adjusted EBITA loss of 40.85 billion yuan, indicating increased investment in emerging markets [39][55]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,023.66 billion yuan, 1,109.81 billion yuan, and 1,190.62 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 97.34 billion yuan, 107.77 billion yuan, and 113.54 billion yuan [38][62]. - The expected EPS for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 is 4.78 yuan, 5.29 yuan, and 5.57 yuan respectively, with PE ratios of 16.68, 15.07, and 14.30 [38][62].