CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-06-04 10:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 265.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.56% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.48 billion yuan, down 5.04% year-on-year [2] - Emerging and overseas businesses are experiencing rapid growth, while the real estate development business continues to be consolidated [2] - The company achieved new contracts worth 621.64 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, with various business segments showing mixed performance [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 8.58%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating slight pressure on profitability [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 36.79 billion yuan, 39.55 billion yuan, and 43.38 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.41, 1.53, and 1.68 yuan [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 2650.11 million yuan, down 2.56% year-on-year; net profit was 748.1 million yuan, down 5.04% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 716.9 million yuan, down 3.30% year-on-year [2] - New contracts signed in Q1 2024 totaled 621.64 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance [2] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 8.58%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 2.82%, down 0.07 percentage points [2] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,339.86 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.27%, and net profits of 36.79 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.87% [4] - EPS is expected to increase from 1.41 yuan in 2024 to 1.68 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 4.68 to 3.93 [3][4] Business Segments - The company’s new contracts by segment include engineering construction (470.12 billion yuan), design consulting (7.5 billion yuan), and emerging businesses (180.4 billion yuan), with year-on-year changes indicating mixed performance across segments [2] - The real estate development segment saw a significant decrease in signed area and amount, with a 60.5% decline in signed amount to 6.73 billion yuan [2]