Quectel(603236) 民生证券·2024-06-04 11:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The IoT module industry is experiencing a shift from West to East, with Chinese companies leading the market By 2023, four major Chinese companies including the report company accounted for over 50% of the global market share [5][18] - The company is the world's largest IoT module provider and a leading IoT solution supplier Despite short-term performance pressure due to weak downstream demand and high R&D investment, the company achieved a 140 60% YoY increase in net profit in Q1 2024 and is expected to continue compensatory growth [5] - The company has built a diversified product matrix, including 5G communication modules, GNSS positioning modules, and satellite communication modules, which are expected to further enhance profitability [5] - The company's global layout and rich product matrix are expected to drive growth, with overseas revenue accounting for 52 60% in 2023 [5][49] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 13 86 billion yuan in 2024 to 25 63 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 25 6%, 21 5%, and 21 1% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 531 million yuan in 2024 to 881 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 486 0%, 34 0%, and 23 8% respectively [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2 01 yuan in 2024 to 3 33 yuan in 2026, with PE ratios of 24x, 18x, and 14x respectively [1] Industry Analysis - The IoT module industry is located in the midstream of the IoT industry chain, with upstream components including baseband chips, RF chips, and storage chips, and downstream applications in wireless payment, vehicle transportation, smart energy, and smart cities [22][23] - The global IoT market is expected to grow from 13 87 trillion USD in 2024 to 22 27 trillion USD in 2028, with a CAGR of 12 6% [150] - The 5G-A era is expected to drive a new round of industry growth, with the R18 standard enhancing uplink transmission performance and accelerating the transition from 4G to 5G in the global cellular IoT market [5][160] Company Strategy - The company has established eight R&D centers and over 50 sales centers globally, with overseas revenue accounting for 52 60% in 2023 [5][49] - The company has launched a series of competitive 5G communication modules, including the RG650x and RG255x series, and has expanded into GNSS positioning and satellite communication modules [5][52] - The company has received a large overseas order for automotive modules, with a total sales amount estimated at 742 million to 1 309 billion USD over an eight-year period starting from 2026 [59] Product Development - The company has developed a comprehensive product line, including 5G/4G/3G/2G/LPWA modules, automotive front-end modules, smart modules, GNSS positioning modules, and satellite communication modules [182] - The company has launched the SG885G-WF, a new flagship Android smart module, and provides AIbox solutions for edge computing applications [94] - The company has introduced high-precision GNSS modules, such as the LG290P, which supports full-system and full-frequency signals for applications in autonomous driving, drones, and precision agriculture [56]