【粤开宏观】美国产能过剩：表现、原因及化解

Group 1: Capacity Utilization Trends - The long-term average of U.S. industrial capacity utilization has declined from 85%-90% in the 1970s to around 80% in the current century[72] - Capacity utilization rates are primarily influenced by fluctuations in the production index, which is closely tied to economic cycles[46] - The U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate has shown a long-term downward trend, indicating potential structural overcapacity issues[73] Group 2: Shale Oil Revolution - The U.S. shale oil production surged from approximately 1 million barrels per day in 2005 to over 10 million barrels per day by 2018, significantly impacting global oil supply[48] - International oil prices fell by 70% from mid-2014 due to oversupply driven by the shale oil boom, leading to a crisis in the oil sector[4] - The U.S. government lifted a 40-year ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 to help mitigate overcapacity, further pressuring international oil prices[31] Group 3: Coal Industry Challenges - The U.S. coal industry faced a long-term overcapacity crisis post-2008 financial crisis, with capacity utilization dropping from nearly 90% in 2009 to around 60% before the pandemic[53] - Coal production peaked at 1.17 billion short tons in 2008 but fell to 594 million short tons by 2022, a decline of approximately 50%[53] - The coal industry's capacity index decreased by 42% from its peak in 2009 to an average of 104 in 2022, reflecting significant overcapacity issues[53] Group 4: Communication Equipment Sector - The U.S. communication equipment industry experienced a capacity boom in the late 1990s, with capacity utilization dropping from 95% in early 2000 to below 40% by the end of 2002 due to the dot-com bubble burst[12] - The recovery of the communication sector was driven by mergers and acquisitions, alongside sustained global demand for broadband and internet services[12]