泡泡玛特：IP扩品类破圈，海外布局加速扩张

Investment Rating - Maintains a Buy rating [2][3] Core Views - Pop Mart demonstrates steady growth through IP incubation, category expansion, and new channel development, with its IP platform logic continuously validated [2] - Overseas expansion accelerates, with new store openings and successful replication of IP category expansion strategies [2] - Pop Mart's 1Q24 revenue grew 40-45% YoY, with mainland China revenue up 20-25% and Greater China & overseas revenue surging 245-250% [2] - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1.066 billion in 2023, a 134.9% YoY increase, with 80 overseas stores (including joint ventures) and 70 directly operated stores [2] - Overseas operating profit margin (OPM) reached 18% in 2023, up 5.6 percentage points YoY [2] - Domestic revenue shows steady growth, with head IPs and category expansion strategies proving effective [2] - Pop Mart City Park Phase I, opened in September 2023, has brought incremental users and enhanced IP lifecycle and value [2] Financial Data and Forecasts - 2024E revenue forecast adjusted to RMB 8.664 billion (previously RMB 9.027 billion) [2] - 2024E Non-IFRS adjusted net profit forecast raised to RMB 1.749 billion (previously RMB 1.592 billion) [2] - 2025E and 2026E revenue forecasts are RMB 10.981 billion and RMB 13.141 billion, respectively [2] - 2025E and 2026E Non-IFRS adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB 2.273 billion and RMB 2.751 billion, respectively [2] - 2024E revenue growth rate is 37%, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit growth rate at 47% [3] - 2025E and 2026E revenue growth rates are 27% and 20%, respectively, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit growth rates at 30% and 21% [3] - 2024E Non-IFRS diluted EPS is RMB 1.30, with 2025E and 2026E forecasts at RMB 1.68 and RMB 2.04, respectively [3] - 2024E ROE is 19%, expected to rise to 20% in 2025E and 2026E [3] Market Data - Closing price on June 4, 2024: HKD 38.70 [4] - 52-week high/low: HKD 40.35/HKD 16.12 [4] - H-share market cap: HKD 52 billion [4] - Outstanding H-shares: 1.343 billion [4] - Exchange rate: RMB/HKD 1.0788 [4]