重庆银行：提效增质，“商行+投行”联动能力不断增强

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's revenue grew by 5.17% YoY in Q1 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 4.04% YoY [3] - In 2023, revenue declined by 1.89% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.27% YoY [3] - The company has obtained qualifications such as independent lead underwriter and core dealer of credit risk mitigation tools, with bond underwriting volume increasing by 68% [3] - Core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose by 3bp to 9.81% in Q1 2024, with a dividend payout ratio maintained at 30% [3] Business Performance - Total assets increased by 2.75% YoY in Q1 2024, with loan balance growing by 10.9% YoY and deposit balance rising by 9.2% YoY [4] - The cost-to-income ratio was 21.98% in Q1 2024, down 3.60pct YoY [4] - In 2023, total assets grew by 10.98% YoY, loan balance increased by 11.45% YoY, and deposit balance rose by 8.42% YoY [4] - Personal deposits exceeded RMB 200 billion in 2023, with a YoY increase of 20.18%, accounting for 48.45% of total customer deposits, up 4.75pct from the end of 2023 [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1bp to 1.33% in Q1 2024, with the provision coverage ratio declining by 0.98pct to 233.20% [4] - The provision coverage ratio increased by 8.80pct to 234.18% in 2023 [4] - The overdue loan ratio decreased by 0.62pct compared to H1 2023 [4] Financial Forecasts - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.41, RMB 1.47, and RMB 1.56, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 4.91%, 4.14%, and 5.39% YoY [4] - The fair value range is estimated at RMB 8.63-8.73, corresponding to a 2024E PE of 6.11-6.18x, compared to the industry average of 4.7x [4] Valuation Metrics - The 2024E PB is estimated at 0.60x, compared to the industry average of 0.63x [4] - The DDM model suggests a fair value of RMB 8.63, while the PB-ROE model suggests a fair value of RMB 8.73 [4] Key Financial Indicators - ROAE is expected to be 9.87%, 10.07%, and 10.41% for 2024-2026, respectively [14] - The net interest margin is forecasted to be 1.26%, 1.21%, and 1.23% for 2024-2026, respectively [14] - The NPL ratio is expected to decline to 1.31%, 1.29%, and 1.28% for 2024-2026, respectively [14]