宏观金融投研日报

Market Overview - Domestic commodities continued to decline, with a significant drop triggered by weakening macroeconomic sentiment[3] - China's May PMI fell below the growth line, indicating a slowdown in economic recovery, while US Q1 GDP and inflation were both revised downwards, dampening demand outlook[3] Commodity Trends - The black metal sector saw declines, with silicon iron down nearly 5% and manganese silicon down over 3%[8] - Energy products also fell, with crude oil and fuel down over 4%[8] - Agricultural products mostly decreased, with rapeseed oil down nearly 2% and palm oil down over 1%[8] Future Outlook - The core issue of insufficient effective demand in China remains unresolved, exerting strong pressure on commodity prices[3] - Continued fiscal and real estate policies aimed at stabilizing growth may provide some support to commodity prices, but the key focus will be whether strong expectations can translate into strong realities[3] Geopolitical and Supply Chain Factors - Geopolitical tensions are disrupting global supply chains, and adverse weather in Southeast Asia is exacerbating port congestion[3] - Domestic energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives are impacting the supply of certain commodities[3] Precious Metals Insights - US May ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, the lowest in three months, indicating a contraction in manufacturing and potentially supporting Fed rate cut expectations[15] - Gold futures closed at 556.24 CNY per gram, down 0.37%, while silver futures rose to 8086 CNY per kilogram, up 0.2%[15] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests observing market conditions, while long-term positions in precious metals are recommended due to potential Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks[18]