2024H2 A股投资策略：守候”朱格拉“，星星之火可以燎原

Core Views - The market is currently in the "policy bottom to market bottom" phase, with A-share market volatility likely to rise, potentially leading to a "double dip" scenario [2] - The "market bottom" is expected to be reached through three pathways: credit indicator recovery, the worst period being over, and a transmission cycle of about 6 months [2] - The "profit bottom" is projected to occur around H1 2025, with PPI indicators bottoming out and corporate actual return rates stabilizing [2] - The "New National Nine Articles" will act as a smoothing agent before the market bottom and accelerate market confidence recovery afterward [2] Market and Strategy Review for H1 2024 - In Q1 2024, the market experienced a "restless rally," with a focus on small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - From March 19, the restless rally ended, and Q2 saw increased market volatility due to three major risks, leading to a defensive strategy favoring banks, precious metals, and high-dividend stocks [2] - Gold was recommended based on a bearish outlook for the US economy and global financial conditions, with a focus on relative gains in Hong Kong stocks [2] Style and Sector Rotation Framework Under the "Dual Cycle" System - In Q2, the focus is on defensive strategies with large-cap value stocks like precious metals, banks, and high-dividend stocks [2] - In Q3, as the market bottom approaches, the strategy shifts to include consumer and growth sectors, while retaining precious metals [2] - In Q4 and H1 2025, the focus will be on growth, non-ferrous metals, and brokerage sectors [2] - Before the market bottom, large-cap value stocks dominate, but after the market bottom, small and mid-cap growth stocks will outperform, especially driven by a "buyback wave" [2] Defensive Strategy Before the Market Bottom - Maintain a defensive stance with a focus on banks as a core holding [2] - Use precious metals and healthcare for offensive plays [2] - High-dividend sectors like home appliances (4%), textiles and apparel (3%), and transportation (3%) are recommended, but caution is advised as they may face corrections near the market bottom [2] Juggler Cycle Investment Theme Post-Market Bottom - The Juggler cycle will dominate the market's upward trend, with equipment investment expansion cycles starting earlier in the recovery phase [2] - Industries benefiting from the Juggler cycle will show "earlier, stronger, and longer" characteristics, with stock performance leading by one quarter [2] - Key industries to watch include engineering machinery, chemical pharmaceuticals, medical devices, optical and electronic components, and environmental protection [2] - Potential opportunities lie in consumer sectors like automobiles and healthcare, as well as growth sectors like machinery, power equipment, electronics, communications, and media [2] Key Risks - Domestic monetary easing may fall short of expectations [2] - Domestic economic recovery may lag [2] - Overseas economic slowdown may exceed expectations, potentially triggering credit risks [2] - Geopolitical risks, including US-China relations and populism, may escalate [2] - Global tech industry upgrades and application rollouts may underperform [2] Historical Market Performance and Strategy - The Q1 2024 rally was driven by policy easing, improved risk appetite, and liquidity expectations [13] - The market is expected to bottom out around August 2024, based on historical cycles [17] - The "policy bottom to market bottom" phase typically lasts about 8 months, with credit indicators like M1% stabilizing as key signals [107] Juggler Cycle Investment Framework - The Juggler cycle benefits industries with early indicators of recovery, leading to outperformance 1-2 quarters before the market bottom [36] - Key industries include engineering machinery, chemical pharmaceuticals, and medical devices, which are in the passive destocking phase [36] - Industries in the active restocking phase, such as automobiles and electronics, will see opportunities as their leading indicators stabilize [36] High-Dividend Strategy - High-dividend strategies are effective during the "policy bottom to market bottom" phase but may face corrections near the market bottom [194] - Sectors with high dividend yields and strong payout capabilities include banks (5%), home appliances (4%), textiles and apparel (3%), and transportation (3%) [194] Repurchase Wave and Market Confidence - A "repurchase wave" is expected to boost market confidence, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap growth stocks [115] - Industries with significant repurchase activity include technology manufacturing, materials, and healthcare [142] - Companies with higher repurchase ratios tend to show stronger outperformance [146] M&A and State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - M&A activities, especially in traditional cyclical industries like chemicals and utilities, are expected to drive market performance [155] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) with a history of M&A activity are likely to benefit from policy support and market reforms [155]