中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行2024年1季度经营数据：净息差1.54%，不良生成平稳；净利润同比+0.66%

Group 1: Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector's net interest margin for Q1 2024 is reported at 1.54%, a decrease of 15 basis points from the previous quarter, primarily due to asset pricing pressures [3] - The total loan amount in the banking industry increased by 9.05 trillion yuan quarter-on-quarter, with non-performing loans (NPLs) reaching 3.37 trillion yuan, reflecting a natural growth in NPLs due to the increase in loan volume [3] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 1.59%, with slight variations among different types of banks, such as state-owned banks and joint-stock banks showing a slight decrease [3] Group 2: Profitability and Capital Adequacy - The net profit of commercial banks in Q1 2024 increased by 0.66% year-on-year, with state-owned banks experiencing a decline of 4.57% in net profit [3] - The capital adequacy ratios for commercial banks have improved, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rising to 10.77%, an increase of 23 basis points from the end of 2023 [3] - The industry’s revenue for Q1 2024 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Recommendations - The banking sector achieved a relative return of 3.7% compared to the broader market, with strong performance from quality city commercial banks in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [3] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on quality city commercial banks with strong fundamentals, as well as large banks that benefit from high dividend yields during economic recovery [4] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring economic conditions, as different recovery scenarios may influence the selection of banking stocks [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Projections - The report anticipates that social financing will rise to 8.4%, with consumer price index (CPI) expected to increase, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [6] - Industrial production growth is projected to slow slightly, with fixed asset investment expected to rebound due to a low base effect [6] - The retail sales growth is forecasted to improve, driven by increased consumer spending during holiday periods [6]