圣邦股份：首次覆盖报告：周期见底迎来强势复苏，长期竞争力显现

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Accumulate" rating and sets a target price of 96 RMB, reflecting a 70x valuation for 2024 [3][12][20]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with consumer demand beginning to rebound. Industrial sectors are expected to recover in Q3 2024, while the automotive sector may enter a replenishment phase between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2][11]. - The company has demonstrated resilience against pricing pressures from Texas Instruments (TI), with improvements in market share and gross margins, even exceeding pre-pandemic levels [2][11]. - The company's revenue structure is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in industrial and automotive sectors, which together account for 47% of total revenue [3][13]. Summary by Sections Overall Perspective - The semiconductor industry has been in a downturn since Q1 2022, but signs indicate a bottoming out, with consumer electronics showing recovery. Industrial and automotive sectors are expected to follow suit [11][30]. - Concerns regarding TI's capacity expansion and aggressive pricing strategies are diminishing, as the company has shown strong performance despite these pressures [11][16]. Changes in Investment Logic - The company's first-quarter financials indicate that product structure optimization has helped mitigate the impact of declining prices, with a gross margin of 52.5%, up from 49.6% in the previous year [24][26]. - The domestic semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery, with the company poised to benefit from this trend as industrial and automotive markets begin to rebound [33][35]. - Despite a significant revenue base, the company is expected to maintain a long-term growth trajectory, supported by its product pricing trends and market share [3][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,246 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 24.1%. Net profit is expected to reach 450 million RMB, with a growth rate of 60.2% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.96 RMB for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 83 [4][17].