煤炭行业事件点评：煤矿复产从严，山西产能恢复进度存疑

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, particularly focusing on leading thermal coal companies [7][12]. Core Insights - The recent implementation of the "Management Measures for Coal Mine Resumption and Production Acceptance" by the Shanxi provincial government aims to enhance safety supervision and streamline the resumption process, but it emphasizes stricter acceptance standards [5][6]. - Shanxi's coal production has seen an unexpected decline due to safety regulations, with March and April production falling below 100 million tons for the first time since August 2021. The target for 2024 is to stabilize production at around 1.3 billion tons, but current projections suggest only 1.11 billion tons may be achieved, indicating significant pressure on future resumption efforts [7][12]. - As the peak summer demand approaches, electricity consumption is expected to rise seasonally, tightening the supply-demand balance for thermal coal and leading to stronger coal prices [7][12]. Summary by Sections Management Measures - The revised management measures simplify the resumption process while enforcing stricter safety standards, requiring clear responsibilities and enhanced safety controls for coal mines [6][5]. Production Outlook - The coal production in Shanxi is under pressure due to stringent safety regulations, with a significant gap between current output and the annual target. The emphasis on strict acceptance procedures may further delay capacity recovery [7][12]. Demand and Pricing - Anticipated seasonal increases in electricity demand are expected to tighten the thermal coal supply-demand dynamics, leading to a bullish outlook on coal prices [7][12].