银行业2024年6月月报：交易风格切换下的投资选择

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector's fundamentals remain under pressure, but the factors suppressing performance are gradually improving, particularly due to a shift in real estate policy and a recovery in wealth management markets [27][28]. - The banking sector's performance in May showed a gain of 2.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.54 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.64 percentage points, ranking fifth among 31 primary industries [7][11]. - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the banking sector as of May 31 is 5.48X, reflecting a 67.71% discount compared to A-shares [7][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In May, the banking sector recorded a monthly gain of 2.96%, outperforming major indices [11]. - The banking sector's valuation has increased, with the P/E ratio at 5.46X as of June 3, 2024, and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.65X, both showing slight increases from the previous month [13][15]. Market Interest Rates - The yield on AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) for 1M, 3M, and 6M is 1.73%, 1.90%, and 1.96%, respectively, with slight declines compared to the end of April [17]. - The expected annual yield on wealth management products has generally decreased, with the most significant drop in 1-week products, which fell by 28 basis points [20][21]. - The average interbank borrowing rate in May was 1.85%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [22]. Industry Review - As of the end of Q1 2024, the total assets of the banking sector reached 429.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [24][25]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for commercial banks remained stable at 1.59%, with a total NPL balance of 3.4 trillion yuan [25]. Investment Recommendations - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve gradually, with a focus on banks with solid fundamentals, such as China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank [27][28]. - The report suggests that while the sector faces short-term pressure, the most significant challenges have passed, and performance is expected to improve sequentially [27][28].