宏观经济点评：出口同比与PMI出口背离的原因

Export Performance - In May 2024, China's exports increased by 7.6% year-on-year, a significant rebound from the previous value of 1.5%[6] - The PMI new export orders index fell to 48.3% in May, down from 50.6%, indicating a divergence from the actual export growth[7] - The three-year compound year-on-year growth for May 2024 exports was 4.7%, up from 3.6% previously, reflecting a more accurate state of external demand[1] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the United States, European Union, and ASEAN showed notable improvements in May 2024, contributing 0.55, -0.16, and 3.33 percentage points to the year-on-year growth, respectively[19] - Compared to previous values, the contributions from these regions improved by 0.97, 0.41, and 2.0 percentage points[19] Product-Specific Insights - Exports of raw materials, general machinery, audio-visual equipment, and automotive parts showed significant marginal increases in May 2024 compared to May 2021[28] - The export growth rates for these categories were +4.3%, +8.0%, +5.9%, and -3.3%, respectively, with improvements of 3.3, 1.0, 1.6, and 1.7 percentage points from previous values[28] Price and Volume Analysis - In May 2024, the positive contribution to exports was primarily driven by volume, while price contributions showed marginal improvement due to a significant drop in export prices in May 2023[66] - The absolute contribution to exports was positive mainly due to quantity, while the marginal contribution from prices was less significant when excluding base effects[66]