5月美国非农数据解读：如何看待美国就业数据“打架”？

Labor Market Trends - Wage growth remained stable with a 4.4% YoY increase in average hourly earnings in May, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Retail and wholesale sectors saw the largest wage growth increases, rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively[13] - Real wage growth continued to decline, with April's real hourly earnings growth at 0.5%, down from March[1] Employment Data - May nonfarm payrolls added 272,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations[3] - Unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, with labor force participation rate declining to 62.5%[3][17] - Previous months' nonfarm payrolls were revised downward, with March and April combined revisions totaling 22,000 fewer jobs[4] Sectoral Analysis - Education/healthcare, government, and leisure/hospitality sectors led job growth with 86,000, 43,000, and 42,000 new jobs respectively[44] - Government, business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant month-over-month job growth increases of 36,000, 34,000, and 30,000 respectively[44] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings declined to 8.059 million in April, with vacancy rate dropping to 4.8%[10] - Labor supply-demand gap narrowed to 1.567 million in April, indicating gradual market rebalancing[11] - Number of people unemployed for over 27 weeks continued to rise, while labor force exits increased[4] Monetary Policy Implications - Market expectations for first Fed rate cut shifted to September following strong nonfarm payrolls data[5] - Inflation pressures remain above Fed's target, with high interest rates likely to persist in the short term[24]