TMT崛起的条件和轮动的顺序

Investment Highlights - TMT sector requires specific conditions for excess returns relative to the market: industry and policy catalysts, sufficient adjustments, and low turnover and valuation compared to the market [1][6][25] - Historical analysis shows that during the seven periods of TMT index outperforming the CSI 300 since 2010, the market was generally weak, with five instances of market declines averaging 12% [1][48] - The recent performance of new stocks indicates a recovery in trading activity, suggesting a potential increase in interest in the new stock sector [1] Market Conditions - Short-term adjustments in A-shares are expected to be limited, with a potential recovery trend post-holiday driven by economic and profit recovery trends [1][16] - Economic indicators such as the Caixin manufacturing and services PMI have shown improvement, alongside favorable consumption data during the Dragon Boat Festival [1][16] - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain accommodative, with potential seasonal inflows from foreign investments and financing post-holiday [1][16][30] TMT Sector Analysis - The TMT sector is currently positioned for potential excess returns relative to the CSI 300 due to strong policy expectations and sufficient prior adjustments [6][25] - Recent technological advancements and policy support are expected to drive the TMT sector's growth, with significant updates in AI and other tech products [6][31] - The TMT index has experienced a decline of 7.7% over the past three months, indicating that it has undergone sufficient adjustment [6][25] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Historical data shows stable inflows from foreign capital around the Dragon Boat Festival, with an average inflow of 17.9 billion yuan in the ten trading days before and after the holiday [30] - The sentiment in the market is expected to remain neutral post-holiday, with fewer risk events during the holiday period contributing to a stable outlook [1][21]