中远海发：集装箱制造：从产量增长，到价格上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5][18]. Core Viewpoints - The international shipping rates have significantly increased since the end of 2023, which is expected to drive up container prices. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 215% from December 2023 to early June 2024, leading to a shortage of containers at ports [1]. - The global container production is anticipated to double in 2024, continuing to grow in 2025, driven by a recovery in foreign trade and increased demand for container usage [2]. - The container manufacturing business of the company is expected to see both volume and price increases, leading to improved profitability. The company's market share in global container manufacturing reached 27% in Q1 2024, with an expected production of around 1.2 million TEU [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 25,633.79 million - 2023: 15,685.13 million - 2024E: 25,760.36 million - 2025E: 28,410.39 million - 2026E: 23,060.34 million - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2022: 3,921.56 million - 2023: 1,409.13 million - 2024E: 2,478.49 million - 2025E: 3,691.84 million - 2026E: 3,812.89 million [4][12][14]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to be: - 2022: 9,671.96 million - 2023: 8,056.25 million - 2024E: 9,616.29 million - 2025E: 10,433.56 million - 2026E: 9,959.30 million [4][12]. Production and Market Trends - The report indicates that container prices for second-hand 20-foot and 40-foot containers increased by 12% and 49% respectively from December 2023 to June 2024, while new container prices rose by 14% and 8% [1]. - The report anticipates that the container production will align with the inventory cycle, with an upward trend expected in 2024-2025 [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the price elasticity of container manufacturing, despite a forecasted decline in average manufacturing prices compared to 2022 [3].