2024年5月外贸数据解读：东盟贡献中国出口同比增量的一半

Core Insights - In May 2024, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 1.5% and above the market expectation of 6.4% [4] - Imports showed a year-on-year increase of only 1.8%, down from 8.4% in April and below the market expectation of 4.5% [4] - The structural characteristic of stronger external demand compared to internal demand has continued since the beginning of the year [4] Export Performance - The divergence between May's export performance and the official manufacturing PMI new export orders index, which fell from 50.6% in April to 48.3% in May, suggests potential underlying factors [5] - Possible reasons for this divergence include the non-comparability of PMI (a month-on-month indicator) with year-on-year export data, a time lag in new export orders reflecting in customs statistics, and a potential alleviation of price factors affecting year-on-year export growth [6][7][8] - Major products saw significant changes, with electromechanical product exports rising from 3.7% in April to 7.8% in May, while integrated circuit exports surged from 17.4% to 30.3% [9] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products turned positive, recovering from -7.1% in April to 2.2% in May, with notable improvements in categories such as clothing, bags, toys, furniture, and footwear [10] Trade Partners - Exports to major countries and regions mostly rebounded, with ASEAN, the US, and the EU showing year-on-year increases of 24.9%, 4.7%, and -0.5% respectively [11] - ASEAN contributed 48.2% to the total export increase in May, largely due to a low base effect [11] Short-Term Outlook - The short-term outlook for China's exports remains optimistic, supported by low-cost advantages and a strong export delivery value growth of 7.3% year-on-year in April [12] - However, attention is needed for potential trade friction escalation in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter [13] Import Performance - China's imports decreased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.8% in May, down from 8.4% in April [16] - Notably, integrated circuit imports increased from 16.5% in April to 17.9% in May, reflecting a recovery in the global semiconductor cycle [16] - The overall import volume of major resource products declined, with copper ore and crude oil imports falling by 11.7% and 8.7% year-on-year respectively [16]