GCL TECH(03800) 交银国际证券·2024-06-11 01:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2] Core Views - The company is expected to face significant short-term profit pressure due to a sharp decline in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices, with an estimated loss of approximately 200 million RMB in Q2 [2] - The company's production capacity utilization for granular silicon has improved to 80-90%, with expectations to reach full production in Q3, which may reduce costs below 40,000 RMB per ton [2] - A long-term sales agreement with leading silicon wafer manufacturer Longi has been signed, indicating strong industry recognition of the company's granular silicon quality [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices in Q3 after a significant decline, suggesting that the current severe losses in the industry may not be sustainable [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 35,930 million RMB in 2022 to an estimated 22,865 million RMB in 2024, with a subsequent recovery to 31,965 million RMB by 2026 [4][8] - Net profit is expected to drop sharply from 16,394 million RMB in 2022 to 236 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 3,345 million RMB in 2026 [4][8] - The gross margin is projected to decrease significantly from 75.0% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2024, with a gradual improvement to 30.1% by 2026 [5][8] Valuation - The valuation for the polysilicon business is set at 355 billion RMB, while new businesses such as perovskite and silane gas are valued at 50 billion RMB, leading to a total valuation of 405 billion RMB [6] - The target price for the company's stock is adjusted to 1.62 HKD from the previous 1.67 HKD, reflecting the recent stock price increase and limited short-term valuation attractiveness [2][6]