Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, with Xiaomi Group, Tencent Holdings, and China Construction Bank leading in net inflows, while the Yingfu Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Southern Hang Seng Technology experienced the highest net outflows [1] Group 1: Net Inflows - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 1.07 billion, representing a 16.36% increase in its closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 863 million, with a 7.49% increase in its closing price [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of 699 million, with a significant 41.06% increase in its closing price [2] Group 2: Net Outflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the largest net outflow of 6.289 billion, reflecting a -31.44% change in its closing price [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of 2.880 billion, with a -17.89% change in its closing price [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) faced a net outflow of 1.289 billion, showing a -11.37% change in its closing price [2] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) led with a net inflow ratio of 74.40%, with a net inflow of 8.9117 million [3] - BRILLIANCE CHI (01114) followed with a net inflow ratio of 64.04%, amounting to a net inflow of 36.4910 million [3] - Qin Port Co. (03369) had a net inflow ratio of 61.05%, with a net inflow of 846,600 [3] Group 4: Net Outflow Ratios - Wisdom Hong Kong 100 (02825) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -18,200 [3] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) recorded a net outflow ratio of -68.86%, with a net outflow of -14.1501 million [3] - Dexion Shipping (02510) experienced a net outflow ratio of -53.53%, with a net outflow of -10.0204 million [3]

与此同时，光伏行业自律进入新阶段，有消息称，1月6日市场监管总局约谈了中国光伏行业协会与通威 股份、大全能源、新特能源等硅料头部企业。据了解，会议主要内容涉及通报有关垄断风险、提出明确 整改意见并对企业做好整改工作提出要求等，明确整改要求，不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量以及 销售价格；不得通过出资比例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得对当前、今后的 价格、成本、产销量等信息开展沟通协调。 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant policy shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, marked by the cancellation of export VAT rebates and the cessation of industry self-regulation, indicating a historical turning point for the sector [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for PV products starting April 1, 2026, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [3]. - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate follows a period of declining export prices and increased competition in overseas markets, leading to substantial losses across the industry [3][4]. Group 2 - The market reacted sharply to these changes, with significant declines in the prices of polysilicon futures and related stocks, indicating a loss of investor confidence [4][8]. - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the PV sector, including Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy, focused on addressing monopoly risks and enforcing compliance with new regulations [4][5]. - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like polysilicon and silicon wafers, downstream component prices have not followed suit, leading to squeezed margins for developers [5][6]. Group 3 - The first quarter is traditionally a slow season for the PV industry, and the anticipated price increases for components face resistance due to weak demand [6][7]. - The shift in policy is prompting a reevaluation of the PV sector's value in the capital markets, with significant sell-offs observed in the stock prices of major companies [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the overall valuation of the PV industry is at historical lows, the uncertainty surrounding future profitability and market dynamics poses challenges for attracting investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing a significant policy shift with the complete cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, marking a historical turning point for the sector [3][4]. Policy Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [4]. - The export VAT rebate policy, initiated in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024, indicating a move towards the cancellation of rebates [4]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of multicrystalline silicon contracts dropping significantly, and major companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing substantial stock declines [3][5]. - On January 8 and 9, 2026, the main contract for multicrystalline silicon futures fell by 9% and 8% respectively, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [5][11]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the silicon material sector indicate a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices through coordinated production and sales strategies [5][6]. - The new regulatory environment prohibits companies from coordinating on production capacity, sales volumes, and pricing, which could lead to increased market volatility [5][6]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like silicon and silicon wafers, the prices for downstream components have not followed suit, squeezing profit margins for developers [9]. - The average transaction price for N-type multicrystalline silicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [9]. Demand and Market Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season for the photovoltaic industry, complicating the acceptance of price increases by end-users [10]. - The overall market demand has been weakening, with a decline in order visibility for both domestic and overseas markets as the year-end approaches [10]. Capital Market Impact - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital markets for the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant sell-offs and pressure on valuations [11]. - From January 8 to 9, 2026, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable sell-off, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy facing significant stock price declines [11].

产业变局 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，标志着行业进 入"无退税补贴"阶段。我国光伏行业出口退税政策始于2013年10月，最近两年退税率逐步下降，从2024 年12月1日起，光伏硅片、电池及组件的出口退税率就从13%降到9%，在当时被视为退税取消的过渡阶 段。 值得重视的是退税取消的背景。2024年以来，我国光伏产品在海外市场面临日益激烈的竞争，出口价格 持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。刚刚过去的2025 ...

1月9日，多晶硅期货多个合约延续了日前的走势继续走跌。截至今日收盘，主力2605合约报51300元/ 吨，收跌8.11%。同期，国内多晶硅领军企业的股价亦大幅下挫，通威股份（600438.SH）收跌3.83%， 大全能源（688303.SH）收跌6.10%，协鑫科技（03800.HK）收跌7.02%。 此前，在光伏"反内卷"的推动下，多晶硅的产量和市场价格表现均有不俗的进展。 记者查阅中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称"硅业分会"）过往数据，2025年，多晶硅产量同比减少 28.4%。当前（截至2026年1月7日）硅料的现货价格较半年前（2025年6月底）的历史低位已回调超 70%。 此外，受三重因素影响，2026年伊始的多晶硅价格延续了涨势。据硅业分会7日分析，第一，硅料端开 工率持续下调，导致多晶硅单位产品综合成本上升，基于售价覆盖成本的定价机制，企业调价意愿较 强；第二，下游硅片、电池片环节价格陆续上调，提升了对硅料价格上涨的接受度；第三，组件端在现 有订单支撑下，对上游价格的传导表现出一定容忍度，支撑了采购意愿。 不过，供需失衡的基本面仍未改变，目前市场供应的收缩速度慢于需求的下滑速度。记者了解到，目 ...

2025年，多晶硅产量同比减少28.4%，但受制于需求收缩，行业暂未走出供过于求的行情。 1月9日，多晶硅期货多个合约延续了日前的走势继续走跌。截至今日收盘，主力2605合约报51300元/ 吨，收跌8.11%。同期，国内多晶硅领军企业的股价亦大幅下挫，通威股份（600438.SH）收跌3.83%， 大全能源（688303.SH）收跌6.10%，协鑫科技（03800.HK）收跌7.02%。 此前，在光伏"反内卷"的推动下，多晶硅的产量和市场价格表现均有不俗的进展。 记者查阅中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称"硅业分会"）过往数据，2025年，多晶硅产量同比减少 28.4%。当前（截至2026年1月7日）硅料的现货价格较半年前（2025年6月底）的历史低位已回调超 70%。 此外，受三重因素影响，2026年伊始的多晶硅价格延续了涨势。据硅业分会7日分析，第一，硅料端开 工率持续下调，导致多晶硅单位产品综合成本上升，基于售价覆盖成本的定价机制，企业调价意愿较 强；第二，下游硅片、电池片环节价格陆续上调，提升了对硅料价格上涨的接受度；第三，组件端在现 有订单支撑下，对上游价格的传导表现出一定容忍度，支撑了采购意愿。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 摩根大通发布研报称，国家市监总局指中国光伏行业协会提出成立整合基金，并分配行业产量配额为违 反反垄断法，对行业反内卷倡议构成打击，预期股价有负面反应。但基于中国推动"反内卷"，该行视今 次事件为调整而非扭转。 该行预期多个潜在结果，包括政府机构入场管理产量配额，或由更高层级部门就豁免产量配额定出条 件。在最差情况下，将出现无序内卷整合。唯一坐拥巨额净现金结余晶硅企业大全新能源（DQ.US）， 以及现金成本最低生产者协鑫科技（03800），在此情况下仍将为最终胜利者，该行维持对该两股"增 持"评级，目标价分别为38美元及1.7港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 责任编辑：史丽君 客户端 摩根大通发布研报称，国家市监总局指中国光伏行业协会提出成立整合基金，并分配行业产量配额为违 反反垄断法，对行业反内卷倡议构成打击，预期股价有负面反应。但基于中国推动"反内卷"，该行视今 次事件为调整而非扭转。 该行预期多个潜在结果，包括政府机构入场管理产量配额，或由更高层级部门就豁免产量配额定出条 件。在最差情况下，将出现无序内卷整合 ...

该行预期多个潜在结果，包括政府机构入场管理产量配额，或由更高层级部门就豁免产量配额定出条 件。在最差情况下，将出现无序内卷整合。唯一坐拥巨额净现金结余晶硅企业大全新能源(DQ.US)，以 及现金成本最低生产者协鑫科技(03800)，在此情况下仍将为最终胜利者，该行维持对该两股"增持"评 级，目标价分别为38美元及1.7港元。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，国家市监总局指中国光伏行业协会提出成立整合基金，并分 配行业产量配额为违反反垄断法，对行业反内卷倡议构成打击，预期股价有负面反应。但基于中国推 动"反内卷"，该行视今次事件为调整而非扭转。 ...

一个月前取得标志性进展的光伏上游多晶硅产能整合，突遭反垄断警告。随之而来的是两年多以来以集 体限产为核心的光伏"自律"行动的未来走向悬念陡增。1月9日，四大多晶硅龙头股齐跌。 1月8日业内传闻称，光伏行业协会及多家多晶硅龙头企业1月6日在北京接受市场监管总局的约谈，参会 企业包括通威、协鑫、大全、新特、亚硅、东方希望。会议通报，自2025年7月以来接到多起举报，直 指相关方"以行业自律为名，推动多晶硅涨价"。举报称，多晶硅产能整合收购平台名义是调整产能，实 际是控制产销量，根据出资比例瓜分市场，挤压下游空间。 该消息称，市监总局在会上围绕反垄断提出了明确整改意见，核心内容是要求协会、企业不得约定产 能、产能利用率、产销量以及销售价格；不得通过出资比例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利 润分配；当前和今后不得就价格、成本、产销量等信息开展沟通协调，要求1月20日前向提交书面整改 措施。 四位来自涉事企业、产业链及市场机构的行业人士向智通财经证实了上述传闻的真实性。 通威集团董事局主席、作为全球最大高纯晶硅供应商掌门人的刘汉元曾在接受智通财经采访时表示，行 业的当务之急仍是反过度竞争和过度内卷，反垄断短期内不 ...