MEITUAN(03690) 中泰证券·2024-06-11 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Short-term macroeconomic factors have pressured food delivery growth, but Meituan's unit economics (UE) remain resilient, reflecting strong market competitiveness [1] - The boundary between Meituan and Douyin in the in-store and travel business is becoming clearer, with potential for gradual margin recovery [1] - Long-term competitive advantages are significant, with improving industry dynamics and attractive current valuation [1] - Adjusted earnings forecasts due to rapid loss reduction in new businesses, maintaining "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance Revenue - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 327 54 billion, +18 4% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 384 46 billion, +17 4% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 441 29 billion, +14 8% YoY [1] Net Profit - 2024E net profit forecast at RMB 28 11 billion, +102 8% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit forecast at RMB 45 15 billion, +60 6% YoY [1] - 2026E net profit forecast at RMB 55 85 billion, +23 9% YoY [1] Key Metrics - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 4 5 [1] - 2024E P/E ratio at 22 5x [1] - 2024E ROE at 15% [1] Business Segments Food Delivery - 24Q1 food delivery orders grew 24% YoY [1] - UE (unit economics) improved to RMB 1 18 per order in 24Q1 [1] - Flash delivery continues high growth, expected to be a key driver of revenue and profit growth [1] In-store & Travel - Competitive pressure from Douyin has eased [1] - 24Q1 operating margin reached 31%, up over 2 percentage points QoQ [1] - Market boundaries with Douyin are becoming clearer, supporting margin recovery [1] New Businesses - Community group buying business is in a rapid loss reduction cycle [1] - 24Q1 new business losses narrowed to RMB 2 77 billion, down 22 72% YoY and 20 76% QoQ [1] Valuation - Current market price: HK688 35 billion [1] - 2024E-2026E P/E ratios: 22 5x, 14 1x, 11 5x respectively [1]