建筑材料行业投资策略周报：二手房成交同环比改善，水泥继续涨价

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Views - Since the end of April, the real estate "de-stocking" and "stabilizing demand" policies have been continuously released, improving real estate expectations to some extent. The transaction volume of second-hand houses has improved month-on-month, and the decline in new house transactions has narrowed. Leading companies in the industry continue to show strong operational resilience, supported by demand for second-hand and existing home renovations. Retail building materials remain resilient, and leading companies in cement and glass maintain profitability advantages. It is recommended to continue focusing on valuation recovery opportunities in the building materials sector under policy catalysts, while also paying attention to the bottom price increases in cement, glass fiber, and certain structurally prosperous sectors (such as overseas markets and pharmaceutical glass) [2][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-hand Housing Transactions and Cement Price Increases - The transaction volume of second-hand houses has shown significant month-on-month improvement since the "517" policy, with new house transaction declines narrowing. Data from 53 cities shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 35.9% in new house transactions for 2024, with a month-on-month improvement in June [39]. 2. Consumer Building Materials - The real estate sector is still bottoming out, but leading companies exhibit strong operational resilience. The long-term demand for consumer building materials remains stable, benefiting from existing home demand. The industry concentration continues to rise, and high-quality sub-sector leaders have significant long-term growth potential. The new construction area is expected to decline to a mid-term low level in 2024, but policy changes are likely to lead to improved sales area [2][46]. 3. Cement - In the off-season, the national average cement price increased significantly by 3% week-on-week. As of June 7, 2024, the national average cement price was 385 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 11 RMB/ton. The cement shipment rate was 50.07%, down 3.07 percentage points month-on-month. Many companies have increased production during off-peak times and raised prices significantly to enhance profitability. However, due to weakened market demand, the overall price trend may experience fluctuations [2][46]. 4. Glass Fiber and Carbon-based Composites - The price of direct yarn remains stable, while discussions for price increases on electronic yarn are ongoing. As of June 6, 2024, the national average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn was 3863 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.81% year-on-year. The long-term demand for glass fiber and carbon-based composites is upward, with a good competitive landscape in various sub-sectors [2][46]. 5. Glass - The float glass market has stabilized in the short term, while photovoltaic glass prices have declined in June. As of June 7, 2024, the average price of float glass was 1690 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. The current valuation of leading glass companies is relatively low, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][46].