零售出海观察系列第36：5月出口好于预期，外部扰动静待修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the wholesale and retail industry as well as the trade sector [2][3]. Core Insights - May export data exceeded expectations, but rising shipping prices and declining foreign exchange gains may impact the Q2 performance of retail companies going overseas. Leading companies with strong performance resilience may perform better [3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In May, China's exports increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with a 2.7% increase from January to May. Imports rose by 2.9% during the same period. The improvement in exports is attributed to a low base from the previous year, increased export activities due to U.S. tariffs, and strong external demand [4]. - Exports to Latin America, BRICS, and ASEAN saw significant improvements, with year-on-year growth exceeding 10%. Capital goods showed the best performance, with notable increases in shipbuilding (57%), integrated circuits (28%), home appliances (18%), and automobiles (17%) [4][8]. Shipping and Currency Impact - Shipping prices have risen sharply since late April, with the SCFI freight index increasing by 68% year-to-date, more than doubling compared to last year. This rise is attributed to various factors, including supply-demand mismatches and port congestion [4][6]. - The report anticipates that the increase in shipping costs will have a relatively minor impact on companies with high-value, small-volume products. However, the decline in foreign exchange gains is expected to affect Q2 performance, with a stable exchange rate forecast for Q2 2024 [4][6]. Company Strategies - Companies are adjusting logistics strategies to mitigate external impacts. For example, Anker Innovations is using long-term contracts and optimizing packaging to reduce logistics costs. Huakai Yibai has shifted a significant portion of its logistics from air to sea, reducing costs [4][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance resilience and lower exposure to external risks, particularly in the cross-border e-commerce sector [4][5]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies for investment, including: - B2B: Xiaoshangcheng and Jiaodian Technology - Premium products: Anker Innovations, Saiwei Times, and Zhiou Technology - General products: Huakai Yibai and Jihong Co., Ltd. [4][5][12].