Cambricon(688256) 国海证券·2024-06-11 05:30Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Cambricon (688256) for the first time [1] Core Views - Cambricon is a global pioneer in AI chips, benefiting from multiple growth drivers including rapid development of large models, AI chip localization, and new product iterations [5] - The company is a leading AI chip provider with a comprehensive product portfolio covering cloud, edge, and terminal applications [5] - Cambricon's revenue reached 709 million yuan in 2023, with intelligent computing clusters contributing 605 million yuan, up 31.85% YoY [5] - The company has set ambitious revenue targets through its equity incentive plan: ≥1.1 billion yuan in 2024, ≥2.6 billion yuan cumulative for 2024-2025, and ≥4.6 billion yuan cumulative for 2024-2026 [5] Market Performance - Cambricon's stock price was 180.10 yuan as of June 5, 2024, with a total market capitalization of 75.03 billion yuan [2] - The stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past year, with a -21.8% return compared to the index's -6.5% [3] Industry Analysis Demand Side - Global large model development is accelerating, with OpenAI's GPT-4o achieving twice the inference speed of GPT-4 Turbo under the same hardware conditions [5] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) and telecom operators are increasing AI infrastructure investments, with Microsoft, Google, AWS, and Meta expected to account for 20%, 17%, 16%, and 11% of global AI server purchases in 2024 respectively [5] - China Mobile initiated a tender for 7,994 AI servers in 2024, indicating strong domestic demand [5] Supply Side - The global AI chip market is projected to reach $67.1 billion in 2024, growing 26% YoY [5] - China's accelerator chip market reached nearly 1.4 million units in 2023, with domestic brands accounting for 14% of shipments [5] - Inference chips dominated the Chinese market with a 67% share in 2023 [5] Product Portfolio Cloud Products - Core products include Siyuan 290 and 370 series chips, with Siyuan 590 under development [5] - The company has expanded into training machines (Xuansi 1000 and 1001) and intelligent computing systems [5] - Cloud products contributed significantly to revenue growth, particularly through participation in computing infrastructure projects in Taizhou and Shenyang [5] Edge Products - The Siyuan 220 edge chip has cumulatively shipped over 1 million units by the end of 2023 [6] - Edge products have established partnerships with major industry clients, though revenue remains concentrated with a few key customers [6] IP Licensing and Software - Cambricon's IP products have been integrated into over 100 million smartphones and other smart devices [6] - The company provides a unified software platform (Cambricon Neuware) for its cloud-edge-terminal product ecosystem [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly: 1.4 billion yuan in 2024 (+97% YoY), 2.49 billion yuan in 2025 (+78% YoY), and 3.48 billion yuan in 2026 (+40% YoY) [6] - Net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025 at 18 million yuan and reach 250 million yuan in 2026 [6] - The company's PS ratio is expected to decline from 53.59x in 2024 to 21.53x in 2026 as revenue grows [6] Competitive Landscape - Cambricon faces competition from domestic players like Hygon (688041), Loongson (688047), and Jingjia Micro (300474) [90] - The company's valuation multiples remain higher than peers, reflecting its growth potential in the AI chip market [90]