FICC&资产配置周观察：央行增持黄金放缓，美债利率先降后升

Group 1: Gold Reserves and Prices - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) paused its increase in gold reserves, maintaining 72.8 million ounces as of the end of May, ending an 18-month streak of increases[2] - As of May 2024, the PBOC's gold reserves totaled 2,262.45 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5 tons, reflecting a net increase of 282 tons since November 2022[2] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate cuts, with London gold prices dropping below $2,300 per ounce on June 7[2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - On June 6, the ECB lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a potential easing cycle among developed economies[3] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 2024 was revised down to 1.8% by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model, while the ISM manufacturing PMI for May recorded 48.2, indicating a contraction[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.61% to 4.28% but rebounded to 4.43% following stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data on June 7[3] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Currency Stability - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,320 billion at the end of May, an increase of $312 billion from the previous month, remaining stable since 2015[15] - The ratio of foreign exchange reserves to GDP was 2.5% at the end of 2023, indicating a stable economic environment despite fluctuations in the currency market[15] - The PBOC has shifted its monetary policy tools, increasing the proportion of claims on other deposit-taking institutions from 10% to 40% of total assets from 2015 to 2023[15] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices have experienced volatility, with Brent crude fluctuating around $80 per barrel following OPEC+ announcements of potential production cuts[18] - As of May 31, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 455.9 million barrels, with production remaining stable at 13.1 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 700,000 barrels per day[18] - The U.S. rig count decreased to 594, down 6 from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply environment in the oil market[18]