宏观专题报告：以史为鉴，通胀水平对比

Group 1: Economic Trends - From 1993 to 1996, China experienced an investment boom with fixed asset investment growth rates of 50% and 69%[9] - In 1998, GDP growth fell to 7.8%, prompting a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[71] - Between 1998 and 2002, the cumulative issuance of long-term construction bonds reached 660 billion yuan, accounting for 1.2%-1.5% of GDP[73] Group 2: Inflation and Deflation - CPI recorded significant inflation rates of 14.7%, 24.1%, and 17.1% from 1993 to 1995, with a peak near 30% in October 1994[15] - The period from 1998 to 2002 saw deflation, with CPI values of -0.8%, -1.4%, and 0.4%[41] - Since April 2023, inflation levels have remained near zero, similar to the deflationary period of 1998-2002[20] Group 3: Policy Responses - Monetary policy was loosened with a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 700 basis points and a cumulative interest rate cut of 675 basis points from 1998 to 2002[71] - Fiscal policy focused on infrastructure investment through the issuance of long-term bonds, aimed at stabilizing economic growth[73] - The government faced challenges in effectively transmitting monetary policy to the real economy, leading to limited credit expansion despite a loose monetary stance[92] Group 4: External Factors - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a 20.5 percentage point decline in China's export growth rate in 1998, resulting in a mere 0.5% growth[65] - The entry into the WTO in 2001 helped boost external demand, contributing to economic recovery post-deflation[46] - The external environment remains critical in shaping domestic economic conditions, particularly in times of low inflation and weak internal demand[99]