Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a target price of HK$ 15.70, down from a previous target of HK$ 25.70 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of RMB 27.01 billion for the fiscal year 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.5%. Sales from power batteries accounted for approximately 80% of total revenue, growing by 21.4% to RMB 22.25 billion [3]. - The company's market share in power battery installations increased from 6.5% in 2022 to 8.5% in 2023, with installed capacity growing over 70% year-on-year to 32.9 GWh. However, market share has been declining since the fourth quarter of the previous year, dropping to 6.4% in the first four months of 2024 [3]. - The customer base is shifting, with XPeng becoming the primary customer, while GAC has fallen to the second position. GAC's new battery factory is expected to impact the company's installation volumes negatively [3]. - The company faces challenges with rising production capacity amid slowing downstream demand, leading to potential underutilization of capacity and increased financing costs [3][8]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 13.0%, with projected margins of 11.7% for 2024 and 10.8% for 2025 [12]. - Total revenue is expected to grow to RMB 32.20 billion in 2024 and RMB 47.21 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2% and 46.6%, respectively [8]. - The net profit for 2023 is projected at RMB 437.2 million, with a significant decline of 37.0% year-on-year [12]. Market Comparison - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HK$ 26.4 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 83.3x and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 48.3x [5]. - Compared to industry peers, the company has a lower gross profit margin and return on equity, indicating potential challenges in profitability relative to competitors [5].
中创新航：压力未见改善