5月美国非农数据点评：政府就业左右非农是否超预期

Employment Data - In May, the adjusted non-farm employment increased by 272,000, exceeding the expectation of 185,000 and the previous value of 165,000[1] - The unemployment rate stood at 4%, matching the previous value and above the expected 3.9%[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The demand for labor, measured by the ratio of job vacancies to total non-farm employment, decreased from a post-pandemic high of 103.77% to 100.93%, nearing the pre-pandemic high of 100.91%[2] - Job vacancies in certain sectors, such as trade, transportation, and energy, are significantly below pre-pandemic levels (85%), while healthcare (134%) and manufacturing (126%) remain above pre-pandemic levels[2] Sector Analysis - Major employment gains in May were concentrated in healthcare (68,000), government (43,000), leisure and hospitality (42,000), and professional and business services (33,000)[33] - Manufacturing employment showed signs of recovery with an increase of 8,000, primarily driven by non-durable goods[33] Economic Outlook - Current policy interest rates are close to neutral, with limited room for preventive rate cuts[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.65% and 4.85%, with a low likelihood of returning to the long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022[4] Inflation and Wage Trends - Wage growth remains high, with May's average hourly earnings increasing by 4.2% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[10] - The income growth rate for middle and high-income groups has significantly declined, while low-income growth remains elevated but slightly decreased[10]