赛轮轮胎：全球化叠加技术创新，进军国际头部行列

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 19.50 CNY, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [7][9]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy while enhancing product innovation, brand building, and product upgrades, which are expected to lead to both profit and valuation improvements, positioning the company among the global tire leaders [2][12]. - The long-term demand for tires is supported by the steady growth in vehicle ownership and the exit of outdated production capacities, allowing Chinese tire companies to capture more global market share [4][30]. - The company has established a comprehensive product layout and is a pioneer in overseas expansion, with production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, and plans for additional bases in Indonesia and Mexico [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Product Layout and Overseas Expansion - The company has completed its product layout for semi-steel, full-steel, and non-road tires since 2009 and is the first Chinese tire company to establish overseas production bases [3][19]. - The company currently operates four domestic production bases and two overseas bases, with plans for further expansion to enhance its global footprint [3][19]. 2. Long-term Demand Support and Rise of Chinese Tires - The global tire market exceeds 180 billion USD, with over 70% of sales coming from the replacement market, indicating a relatively inelastic demand supported by increasing vehicle ownership [4][30]. - The exit of outdated production capacities is improving the supply landscape, allowing Chinese tire manufacturers to leverage their cost advantages [4][30]. 3. Advantages of Globalization and Overseas Bases - The company has strategically located its overseas bases in regions with favorable tax rates and minimal anti-dumping duties, enhancing its risk resilience and profitability [5][30]. - The overseas production facilities are expected to significantly contribute to the company's earnings, with a higher profit margin compared to domestic operations [31]. 4. Integrated R&D and Brand Development - The company emphasizes R&D investment and has established partnerships with research institutions to create technological barriers, exemplified by the innovative "Liquid Gold" tire [6][30]. - The successful development of large tires has broken overseas monopolies, further enhancing the company's product structure and profitability [6][30]. 5. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 32.2 billion CNY, 36.3 billion CNY, and 42.9 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profits of 4.3 billion CNY, 5.1 billion CNY, and 6.2 billion CNY, reflecting strong growth rates [7][14]. - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 26% for EPS, driven by the company's global expansion and product optimization [7][14].