2025 年 10 月 14 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 最新报告摘要 证券研究报告 两部门发布《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，环氧丙烷、聚醚价格上涨--行业周报 Figure 发布 Figure 03，9 月重卡批发同比大幅增长--行业周报 10-11 月：转债进攻的最好时机--固定收益专题研究 贸易摩擦与利率机会--债券研究周报 双节白酒动销平淡，关注内需政策--行业周报 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 172 期 观点精粹: 近日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、应急管理部、中国人民银行、市场监管总局、金融监管总局、供销合作 总社等 7 部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025－2026 年）》（以下简称《工作方案》）。出台《工 作方案》，旨在统筹推进稳增长和促转型，坚持培育行业增长新动能和更新旧动能相结合、供给质量提升与内 外需求拓展相结合、市场主导与政府引导相结合，着力实现石化化工行业质的有效提升和量的合理增长，夯实 行业高质量发展基础。 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、两 ...

关于对2025青岛民营企业百强系列榜单入围名单公示的公告 来源：观海新闻 为深入贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和党的二十大及二十届二中、三中全会精神，贯彻落实习近平总书记在民营企业座谈会 上的重要讲话精神，助力全市民营经济高质量发展，市工商联、市发展改革委、市科技局、市工业和信息化局、市人力资源和社会保障 局、市农业农村局、市商务局、市市场监管局、市民营经济局、市税务局共同组织开展2025青岛民营企业百强系列榜单评选发布活动。 活动启动以来,按照企业申报、各区市推荐、部门审核、征求成员单位意见等规定程序，参考2025山东民营企业百强系列榜单评选成 果，形成2025青岛民营企业百强系列榜单入围名单（含差额）。现将该名单予以公示，接受社会各界监督，公示期为2025年10月13日至 10月17日。入围企业若存在重大违法失信行为或其他不符合参评条件的问题，请在公示期内反映。 | 序号 | 企业名称 | | --- | --- | | 1 | 万达国贸集团有限公司 | | 2 | 山东新希望六和集团有限公司 | | 3 | 新华锦集团有限公司 | | 4 | 山东能链控股有限公司 | | 5 | 青岛世纪瑞丰集团 ...

2025年10月13日，赛轮集团股份有限公司在优质运营、创新突破、社会贡献等指标中表现优异，入围 《经济观察报》2024—2025年度受尊敬企业。根据经观中国上市公司综合价值评估体系，营业收入、净 利润、总资产、研发费用连续三年实现正增长。 ...

赛轮轮胎 摘要 2025 年二季度，赛轮营收达 91.75 亿元，同比增长，环比增长，但受 欧美关税影响，利润降至 8 亿元。产量达 2,072 万条，销量近 2000 万 条创新高，均价环比上涨超 6%，显示需求旺盛。 天然橡胶价格受经济周期和供应影响，预计四季度割胶旺季将带来下行 压力，利好赛轮等轮胎企业。合成橡胶价格与天然橡胶趋同，原材料成 本下降有助于提升赛轮利润空间。 轮胎需求刚性较强，替换市场为主。原材料成本（天然、合成橡胶占比 约 50%）和关税政策直接影响赛轮业绩，公司通过国际化布局和效率提 升应对挑战。 美国对轮胎加征 25%关税，赛轮提价后仍承担约 6%。二三季度业绩受 原材料和关税影响波动，但长期看，全球替换胎需求稳定增长，汽车产 量和保有量持续上升。 新能源车渗透率提升，其轮胎磨损快、价格高，将增加轮胎市场需求。 赛轮与比亚迪、小米合作，并进入赛车领域，提升品牌认可度。 赛轮海外收入占比达 76%，利润率更高，全球市场份额提升。公司在越 南、柬埔寨、墨西哥、印尼等地建厂，海外布局产能规模领先。 赛轮自主研发液体黄金轮胎打破技术瓶颈，市场反应积极。预计 2025 年归母净利润约 42 亿 ...

9月29日，赛轮轮胎盘中下跌2.05%，截至09:47，报14.35元/股，成交8029.29万元，换手率0.17%，总市 值471.84亿元。 赛轮轮胎所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-轮胎轮毂。所属概念板块包括：轮胎、青岛、出海概念、 增持回购、基金重仓等。 截至6月30日，赛轮轮胎股东户数6.61万，较上期增加7.17%；人均流通股49754股，较上期减少6.69%。 2025年1月-6月，赛轮轮胎实现营业收入175.87亿元，同比增长16.05%；归母净利润18.31亿元，同比减 少14.90%。 分红方面，赛轮轮胎A股上市后累计派现47.58亿元。近三年，累计派现27.58亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，赛轮轮胎十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1.42亿股，相比上期增加2822.44万股。易方达消费行业股票（110022）位居第六大流通股 东，持股6159.56万股，相比上期增加695.23万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通股 东，持股4681.42万股，相比上期增加759.60万股。大成新锐产业混合A（090018）位居第十大 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Sailun Tire Industry Overview - Sailun Tire has established production bases in multiple countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia, with plans to build a new factory in Egypt to be closer to consumer markets and avoid trade barriers, enhancing overseas profitability [1][2] - The global tire replacement market is experiencing growth, but Chinese tire companies face export tariff challenges. Sailun effectively mitigates these barriers through overseas manufacturing, projecting an overseas gross margin of 30% in 2024, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 21% [1][6][11] Core Business Insights - Sailun's product range includes semi-steel tires, all-steel tires, and off-road tires, with a focus on expanding the high-margin off-road tire market. By the end of 2024, the company aims to achieve an off-road tire production capacity of 215,000 tons, with plans to expand to 450,000 tons [1][3][7] - The company has developed a proprietary "Liquid Gold" tire technology that addresses rolling resistance, wet traction, and wear resistance, enhancing its long-term growth potential [8][10] Financial Performance and Projections - Sailun's revenue is projected to rank tenth globally in 2023 and 2024, with expected profits of 4.2 billion, 5.2 billion, and 6.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating sustained growth [2][4][12] - Recent fluctuations in raw material prices have impacted gross margins, but a decrease in prices is anticipated in the latter half of the year, with expectations for improved margins in Q3 and Q4 [9] Competitive Advantages - Sailun's integration of production, education, and research, in collaboration with Qingdao University of Science and Technology and EVE Rubber Research Institute, supports continuous product optimization, particularly in the high-margin off-road tire segment [7] - The company's overseas production strategy not only provides tax advantages but also enhances its competitive edge in the global market [11] Company: Jerry Holdings Market Development - Jerry Holdings has made significant progress in the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, particularly in the natural gas sector, with countries like Oman, Qatar, and the UAE planning substantial increases in natural gas production [13] - The company has secured large orders, including significant contracts in Kuwait and Algeria, positioning these regions as key growth areas [13] U.S. Market Opportunities - Despite challenges in the U.S. market due to past oil price volatility, Jerry Holdings is poised for growth as the market enters a new equipment replacement cycle, with approximately 40% of the 200+ fracturing fleets needing updates [14] - If Jerry captures 10% of this market, it could result in annual orders for about 5 units of equipment, each generating approximately 200 million yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 60%-70% [14] Domestic Market Prospects - In China, the focus on energy security has led to increased capital expenditure in unconventional oil and gas exploration, benefiting Jerry as a supplier of related equipment [15] - The company is expected to gain from the rising capital expenditures in unconventional oil and gas sectors, providing a stable growth foundation [15] Conclusion - Both Sailun Tire and Jerry Holdings are positioned to leverage their strategic advantages and market opportunities for sustained growth in their respective sectors, with Sailun focusing on global expansion and product innovation, while Jerry capitalizes on regional developments and equipment upgrades.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [5][6][20] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see stable growth due to the introduction of policies aimed at enhancing industry health and eliminating outdated capacity [5][6] - The demand for viscose filament is anticipated to tighten, leading to an upward trend in prices, while the grass herbicide market is expected to optimize its structure [5][6] - The global GDP growth is projected to remain at 2.8%, with stable oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariff policies [5][6] Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable [5][6] - The coal market is anticipated to experience long-term price stabilization, with easing pressures on downstream sectors [5][6] - Natural gas exports from the U.S. are likely to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5][6] Chemical Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the viscose filament industry will see a supply-demand tightening, with a projected increase in operating rates from 84% to over 95% [5][6] - The grass herbicide market is set to address issues of low pricing and quality through upcoming industry meetings aimed at regulating competition [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [5][6] - Specific companies to watch include Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Lier Chemical, which are expected to benefit from market dynamics [5][6][20] Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating various ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for companies like Hailir Chemical, Yunnan Chemical, and Wanhu Chemical [20]

Core Viewpoint - Dongying City is advancing its carbon footprint management from a nascent stage to a systematic framework, focusing on achieving dual carbon goals through innovative collaborative efforts [3]. Group 1: Carbon Footprint Management - Carbon footprint management is essential for implementing the dual carbon goals, with Dongying City targeting core needs starting in 2023 [3]. - The city is establishing the "Yellow River Delta Smart Carbon Valley" platform, which serves as a digital hub for carbon management, covering the entire process from carbon resource development to carbon trading [3]. - The platform has already provided over 120 professional services to enterprises and attracted 21 companies in the new energy and dual carbon industry chain, facilitating carbon asset transactions exceeding 70 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Standards - Dongying City is accelerating the construction of the provincial carbon measurement center, with laboratory construction, database setup, and talent recruitment already underway [3]. - The city has led and participated in the release of three group standards and is involved in drafting six national and industry standards to strengthen the foundation for carbon footprint accounting [3]. Group 3: Pilot Projects and Collaborations - To ensure the success of pilot projects, Dongying City has established a task force led by a deputy mayor, collaborating with multiple departments such as development and reform, industry and information technology, ecological environment, and market regulation [4]. - The city has partnered with the China Quality Certification Center to select three companies, including Sailun Tire, as pilot projects for green certification, aiming to facilitate the international market entry of Dongying's green tires [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable growth of Sailun Group, which has successfully positioned itself among the top 500 private enterprises in China and within the top ten global tire brands, showcasing its transition from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing and global presence [1][11] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Sailun has tackled the long-standing "devil's triangle" challenge in the tire industry, which involves optimizing rolling resistance, wet traction, and wear resistance simultaneously [2] - The company has developed the "Liquid Gold" tire, a significant innovation that addresses this challenge and has been recognized as a milestone in rubber tire industrial history [2][6] - Sailun's R&D investment has seen an annual growth rate exceeding 20%, with over 2,000 domestic and international patents, reflecting its commitment to technological advancement [3][4] Group 2: Product Development - The launch of the "Color Edge Tire" represents a blend of aesthetic innovation and advanced technology, maintaining the performance benefits of the Liquid Gold technology while introducing vibrant colors [5][6] - The Color Edge Tire incorporates proprietary technologies such as ARMORSEAL self-sealing technology and SILENTTREAD noise reduction, enhancing its market appeal [6] Group 3: Global Expansion - Sailun has established manufacturing bases in multiple countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in Egypt, aiming to enhance its global footprint [7][8] - The company operates under a "global factory" model, leveraging digital technologies to improve operational efficiency across its international production facilities [8] Group 4: Brand Strategy - Sailun has successfully transformed its brand image from a low-cost manufacturer to a recognized global player through strategic partnerships in high-profile events and innovative marketing campaigns [10][11] - The brand's value has significantly increased, ranking among the top ten global tire brands and achieving a brand value of approximately 112.9 billion yuan, reflecting its growing influence in the market [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and trends in the Chinese rubber tire industry, particularly focusing on the production statistics for the year 2025 [1][2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of rubber tire outer tires in China for May 2025 is projected to be 10,199 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, the total production of rubber tire outer tires in China reached 48,896.2 million units, indicating a cumulative growth of 2.8% [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the rubber tire industry include Linglong Tire (601966), Triangle Tire (601163), Sailun Tire (601058), Guizhou Tire (000589), Fengshen Co., Ltd. (600469), Qingdao Doublestar (000599), General Co., Ltd. (601500), and S. Jiatong (600182) [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 China Rubber Tire Outer Tire Industry Market Analysis and Industry Trend Research Report" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1][2]