行业研究丨深度报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 半钢胎专题：拐点或至，乘势而飞 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 欧盟对华半钢胎双反 2026 年中或将落地，约 0.87 亿条需求或向海外转移，当前中国胎企海外 半钢胎产能只有 1.76 亿条/年，难以满足欧美合计约 2.51 亿条/年的半钢胎需求，欧盟的订单转 移或造成海外半钢胎产能不足。建议关注量价双击的机会，量方面，关注胎企海外产能的边际 增量，增量越大更受益；价方面，关注胎企的产能总量，海外产能占比越高越受益。建议关注 森麒麟、赛轮轮胎、中策橡胶、玲珑轮胎。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 孙国铭 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525090001 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 半钢胎专题：拐点或至，乘势而飞 [Table_Summary2] 半 ...

1月13日，赛轮轮胎跌3.18%，截至发稿，报15.53元/股，成交9.95亿元，换手率1.93%，总市值510.64亿 元。赛轮轮胎股价已经连续4天下跌，区间累计跌幅7.8%。 广发聚宝混合A（001189）成立日期2015年4月9日，最新规模8798.84万。今年以来收益0.1%，同类排 名8444/8836；近一年收益8.18%，同类排名6798/8091；成立以来收益59.53%。 广发聚宝混合A（001189）基金经理为刘志辉。 截至发稿，刘志辉累计任职时间9年60天，现任基金资产总规模241.33亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 48.99%， 任职期间最差基金回报-0.65%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，赛轮集团股份有限公司位于山东省青岛市郑州路43号橡塑新材料大楼，成立日期2002年11月 18日，上市日期2011年6月30日，公司主营业务涉及轮胎产品的研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成 为：轮胎产品98.89 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

2026 年 01 月 11 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 于畅 S0350124080008 | | | | yuc02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 多晶硅、丁二烯价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 10.7% | 9.6% | 45.1% | | 沪深 300 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.9% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注 反内卷和铬盐（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》 ——2025-12-08 《基础化工行 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 11 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：中国石化与中国航油实施重组，尿素 市场迎"开门红" 投资主线三：关注具有较强韧性的景气周期行业、以及库存完成去化迎来 底部反转。（1）磷化工：供给端受环保政策限制，磷矿及下游主要产品供给 扩张难，叠加下游新能源需求增长，供需格局趋紧。磷矿资源属性凸显，支撑 产业链景气度。建议关注：云天化、川恒股份、兴发集团、芭田股份。（2） 氟化工：二代制冷剂生产配额加速削减支撑盈利能力高位企稳，三代制冷剂生 产配额落地在即迎来景气修复，高端氟聚合物及氟精细化学品高速发展，萤石 需求资源属性增强价格阶段性高位。建议关注：金石资源（萤石资源储量、成 长性行业领先）、巨化股份（制冷剂龙头企业）、三美股份、永和股份、中欣 氟材。（3）涤纶长丝：库存去化至较低水平，充分受益下游纺织服装需求回 强于大市（维持评级） 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 3.82%，创业板指数上涨 3.89%， 沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.39%，申万化工指数上涨 5.03%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌 ...

轮胎框架深度：替代加速拐点、高端配套突破，26 戴维斯 双击之年 20260108 摘要 自主品牌轮胎海外市场份额提升空间巨大，当前份额远低于国内，主要 通过替代三四线外资品牌实现增长，预计 2026 年高端配套市场份额将 显著突破。 自主头部轮胎企业正加速全球化布局，通过在东南亚以外地区散点式布 局产能，有效规避贸易风险，提高业绩确定性，并有望在 2026 年迎来 产能密集释放期。 欧美贸易政策变化及通胀背景下，中国自主轮胎企业凭借性价比优势， 有望加速替代外资品牌，并受益于全球车企降本压力带来的配套机会。 高端车型配套是自主轮胎企业提升品牌力的关键，中策橡胶、赛轮股份 等已进入 30 万以上车型配套领域，预计到 2027 年，国内半钢配套市 场占有率将突破 60%。 中国自主头部轮胎企业盈利能力强劲，净利润率普遍达到 10%左右， ROE 超过 20%，非公路轮胎产品毛利率高达 40%-50%，具备显著的 投资价值。 Q&A 2026 年汽车轮胎行业的整体发展趋势和市场预期如何？ 2026 年被视为汽车轮胎行业的业绩和估值双击之年。我们从 2025 年 5 月就 开始提示板块性的业绩拐点机会，认为板块的预 ...

赛轮轮胎 20260106 摘要 赛轮轮胎通过全球化布局有效应对汇率波动，国内工厂进口天然橡胶以 美元计价，出口比例较高，汇率波动带来影响但总体可控，园区结售汇 操作平滑了汇率损益。 欧盟对中国半钢胎双反调查预计 2025 年 1 月公布初步结果，赛轮已将 出口欧洲产品转移至越南基地生产，柬埔寨和越南订单充足，海外工厂 开工率高，产量创新高，对公司整体影响不大。 赛轮轮胎新工厂建设稳步推进，印尼和墨西哥工厂处于产能爬坡阶段， 预计 2026 年 3 月达设计产能；新和平工厂首台已下线；董家口半钢胎 项目预计四季度投产；埃及项目计划 2025 年三季度首台下线。 面对国内半钢胎市场竞争加剧，赛轮轮胎 2025 年目标设定相对保守， 侧重 OE 配套市场，配套销售目标为 800 万条，替换市场目标增加 100 万条，已与代理商探讨产品规划和营销策略。 全球最低税政策对赛轮轮胎产生影响，柬埔寨作为香港全资子公司需补 足 15%税率，预计未来一两年大部分国家将实施全球最低税，享受低于 15%优惠税率将更难。 Q&A 请介绍一下赛轮轮胎在 2024 年第四季度的经营情况及面临的挑战。 2024 年，赛轮轮胎面临诸多挑战 ...

Core Insights - The approval of Prometeon Tyre Group's $300 million investment in Egypt marks a new phase in international cooperation within the Egyptian tire industry, contributing to the region's emergence as a strategic hub for global tire production [1][8] Investment Details - The project will initially focus on manufacturing tires for heavy-duty vehicles, construction equipment, and agricultural tractors, with plans to expand into passenger car tires later [2][10] - The products will leverage Egypt's logistical advantages via the Suez Canal and Red Sea ports, catering to domestic demand and exporting to the Middle East, Africa, and Europe [2][10] - This investment is one of the largest foreign investments in Egypt's tire manufacturing sector in recent years, filling a gap in high-end commercial vehicle tire production [2][10] Industry Trends - The investment by Prometeon is part of a broader trend, with major Chinese tire manufacturers also accelerating their capacity expansion in North Africa, indicating a clear "cluster effect" [3][12] - Other notable investments include: - Chaoyang Longma Tire's $190 million project in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, aiming for an annual production of 4.5 million passenger tires and 1 million heavy truck tires, expected to create around 1,400 jobs [5][12] - Sailun Group's $291 million project for 3.6 million radial tires annually, with groundbreaking in September 2025 [5][14] - China National Chemical Corporation's plan to invest $400 million to expand its Alexandria factory, adding 1.5 million tire capacity [5][14] Strategic Advantages - Egypt has become a strategic location for companies targeting European and African markets due to four key advantages: - Free trade agreements with the EU, EFTA, Turkey, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) allow for zero or reduced tariffs on qualifying products, reducing costs for tire manufacturers [6][15] - The Suez Canal provides significant logistical advantages, enabling controlled logistics costs and rapid access to Middle Eastern, African, and Southern European markets [6][15] - A young and cost-effective labor force, with approximately 60% of the population under 30, offers a competitive edge for labor-intensive tire manufacturing [6][15] - A solid automotive industry foundation, with 23 assembly lines producing around 120,000 vehicles annually, creates substantial local demand for tires [6][15] Government Support - The Egyptian government is actively promoting policies to support foreign investment, including tariff reviews to protect local industries and the establishment of investor associations for streamlined administrative processes [8][17] - As projects like those from Prometeon, Longma, and Sailun materialize, Egypt is transitioning from merely a sales market to a comprehensive regional tire manufacturing center, reshaping its industrial landscape and impacting global tire supply chains [8][17]

紧随其后，玲珑轮胎与豪迈集团形成了第二梯队的强力"双雄"。玲珑轮胎王希成家族以335.96亿元位列第18名，豪迈集团张恭运以335.81亿元位列第19 名，两者身价极其接近。此外，万达控股尚吉永、豪迈集团柳胜军与刘霞、赛轮集团与软控股份袁仲雪、森麒麟秦龙等企业家也凭借卓越表现成功入围前 100，进一步巩固了山东轮胎行业的富豪阵容。 深耕主业，诠释"山东力量" 作为山东的支柱产业之一，轮胎行业此次的集体高光亮相，再次印证了"山东轮胎"的硬核实力。从华勤、玲珑到赛轮、森麒麟，这些上榜企业依托技术创 新与深耕主业的战略定力，完成了从传统制造向高端化、智能化的华丽转身。 12月30日，"2025山东创富榜"正式揭晓，在这份总创富额高达2.5万亿元的榜单中，山东优势产业——橡胶轮胎行业再次交出亮眼答卷。共有8位轮胎及相 关产业链企业家跻身前100名，其中，华勤橡胶牛宜顺家族以551.28亿元的创富值高居榜单第10位，强势登顶山东轮胎行业首富。 | | | 2025 山东创富榜(轮胎业 ) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 姓名 | 创富值 (亿元) | 企业简称 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 Shandong Wealth Creation List" features 300 entrepreneurs from 165 companies, with a total wealth creation amounting to 2.5 trillion yuan, averaging 83.46 million yuan per person, and a minimum entry threshold of 5.3 million yuan [2][19][16]. Group 1: Tire Industry Entrepreneurs - Notable entrepreneurs in the tire industry include the Niu Yishun family, Wang Xicheng family, Zhang Gongyun, Shang Jiyong, and Yuan Zhongxue, with 8 individuals making it into the top 100 [2][18]. - The top tire industry entrepreneur is the Niu Yishun family, ranked 10th with a wealth creation value of 551.28 billion yuan from Huqin Rubber, located in Jining Yanzhou [2][18]. - Other prominent figures include Wang Xicheng family (18th, 335.96 billion yuan, Linglong Group, Yantai Zhaoyuan) and Zhang Gongyun (19th, 335.81 billion yuan, Haomai Group, Weifang Gaomi) [2][18]. Group 2: Overall Rankings and Wealth Distribution - The overall wealth creation list includes Zhang Gang at the top with 1,127.67 billion yuan from Xinfeng Group, followed by Zhang Bo (748.82 billion yuan, Weiqiao Group) and Yu Xiaoning family (738.25 billion yuan, Daon Group) [5][21]. - The list has seen an increase in female entrepreneurs, with 25 women represented, up by 5 from the previous year, contributing a total wealth of 237.7 billion yuan, averaging 95.08 million yuan per person [3][19]. - The list has been compiled by Shandong Business Daily for 16 consecutive years, highlighting the ongoing economic development in the region [3][19].