中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行资金面专题研究|哪些机构在推动银行股涨跌？

Core Insights - The analysis emphasizes that the funding environment for banks is the primary driver of stock prices this year, while the fundamentals are secondary [3] - Passive funds, particularly ETFs, have significantly contributed to the rise of bank stocks, with a notable increase in their scale over recent years [3] - Insurance and bank wealth management funds are crucial for bank stock stability, as these funds face an "asset shortage" and are attracted to high-dividend bank stocks [3] - Northbound capital has a strong short-term impact on bank stock fluctuations, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [3] - Active funds tend to increase their positions in bank stocks only when a clear trend is established, focusing on high-quality companies for potential gains [3] Summary by Sections Passive Funds - The rapid expansion of passive index funds, particularly ETFs, has been a key factor in driving bank stock prices up, with significant increases in scale from 2020 to 2024 [3] - The correlation between ETF inflows and bank stock performance is 35.1%, indicating a growing influence of ETFs on bank stocks [3] Insurance and Bank Wealth Management Funds - Insurance companies have seen stable growth in premium income, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.7%, and their total asset management balance reached 27.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 [3] - The proportion of equity investments in total assets for insurance and wealth management has decreased, leading to a preference for high-dividend bank stocks, which had a dividend yield of 4.76% in 2023 [3] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital has shown a high correlation with bank stock price movements, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [3] - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China have attracted significant inflows, with amounts reaching 172.3 billion yuan and 61.9 billion yuan respectively [3] Active Funds - Active funds exhibit a tendency to increase their holdings in bank stocks only when a clear upward trend is established, with a correlation of 51.3% between fund flows and stock price movements [3] - The focus has shifted among active funds from core assets in 2020 and 2021 to high-quality city commercial banks in 2022, and back to large banks in 2023 [3] Investment Recommendations - Bank stocks are characterized by stability and defensive attributes, along with high dividends, making them attractive for investment [3] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued city and rural commercial banks, large banks benefiting from economic recovery, and core assets if economic recovery expectations are strong [3]