有色行业周报（2024.06.03-2024.06.07）：美国5月非农超预期，金银价格高位震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the market maintains a long-term view on interest rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar and benefit commodity prices in the medium to long term. Supply-side disruptions, such as a year-on-year decline in copper production in Chile and reduced output of electrolytic aluminum due to insufficient power supply, are noted. On the demand side, the introduction of real estate policies and the implementation of a one trillion yuan bond are expected to improve demand [5][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquidity outlook remains positive, with expectations for interest rate cuts. It identifies potential beneficiaries in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Industrial Metals: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Suotong Development - Energy Metals: Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, Rongjie Co., Yuxing Materials, Zhongmin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt - Precious Metals: Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Hunan Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [5][13]. Weekly Sector Performance - As of June 7, 2024, the non-ferrous metals index experienced a week-on-week decline of 2.6%, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries. The overall year-to-date performance shows an increase of 7.96% [14][18]. Price and Inventory Performance Industrial Metals - As of June 7, 2024, LME copper and aluminum prices decreased by 3.18% and 2.98%, respectively. LME copper closed at $9,748.50 per ton, while SHFE copper was at 81,530 yuan per ton. The report notes that copper prices are currently fluctuating at high levels, influenced by demand and Federal Reserve policy changes [22][23]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices fell by 4.33% and 2.98%, reaching 101.14 thousand yuan per ton and 90.58 thousand yuan per ton, respectively. The price of electrolytic cobalt dropped by 8.3% to 221 thousand yuan per ton [35][36]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold closed at $2,366.90 per ounce, up 1.75% week-on-week, while COMEX silver fell by 3.62% to $29.30 per ounce. The gold-silver ratio increased to 80.78, reflecting a 5.57% rise [37][38]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices showed weakness, with prices for various oxides declining. For instance, the price of oxidized neodymium fell by 2.41% to 36.4 thousand yuan per ton [44][45].