6月FOMC前瞻：美联储会调低降息指引么？

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in market bets on a rate cut in September[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0%, despite strong job growth, indicating potential discrepancies in employment data[12] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.3% before rising to over 4.45% following the non-farm payroll report[17] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower its guidance for rate cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations of approximately two cuts[18] - The probability of a rate cut in July is considered very low, with more focus shifting to the September meeting[18] Inflation and Market Reactions - Recent declines in oil prices are expected to temper the CPI data for May, alleviating some inflation concerns[17] - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, maintaining stability despite fluctuations in interest rates[17] European Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, consistent with market expectations, while providing a vague hawkish guidance[18] - The ECB's cautious stance reflects uncertainty regarding future economic and inflation trends in the Eurozone[18]