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高盛：礼来公司(LLY)第45 届医疗保健大会主要
LLYLilly(LLY) 观点指数·2024-06-12 02:07

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) is Neutral with a 12-month price target of 785,reflectingadownsideof7.6785, reflecting a downside of 7.6% from the current price of 849.99 [11][15][16]. Core Insights - Eli Lilly is making significant progress in its diabetes and obesity franchise, with over 18billionincapitalcommitmentssince2020,includingarecent18 billion in capital commitments since 2020, including a recent 5 billion investment in an Indiana plant. The company aims to meet global demand by 2025 and is optimistic about the introduction of oral therapies like orforglipron, which is currently in Phase III trials with readouts expected in 2025 [5][6][11]. - The company is confident in the efficacy of tirzepatide, expecting it to demonstrate best-in-category attributes in upcoming head-to-head studies against competitors [6][11]. - Coverage for Zepbound is improving, with out-of-pocket costs for patients in the mid-single digits, and the anticipated redesign of Medicare Part D in 2025 could further support patient adherence [7][11]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing and Supply - Eli Lilly has committed over 18billiontoenhancemanufacturingcapabilitiesfordiabetesandobesityproducts,withafocusonaligningsupplywithincreasingglobaldemand.Thecompanyhasseenimprovementsintheavailabilityofcertaindosesandisoptimisticaboutscalingupmanufacturingfororaltherapies[5][10].ClinicalDevelopment−Thecompanyisadvancingitsclinicalprograms,withdatafromPhase3trialsfororforglipronexpectedin2025.EliLillyisalsoexploringthepotentialofcombinationtherapies,suchasretatrutide,whichisanticipatedtoservepatientswithhigherBMIs[10][11].MarketDynamics−Thecompanyisexperiencingvariabilityinout−of−pocketpurchasingacrossdifferentgeographies,withnotabledifferencesincountrieslikeBrazil.ThelaunchofLillyDirectishelpingtoimprovepatientconnectivityandadoption[7][11].FinancialProjections−EliLilly′srevenueprojectionsshowsignificantgrowth,withexpectedrevenuesof18 billion to enhance manufacturing capabilities for diabetes and obesity products, with a focus on aligning supply with increasing global demand. The company has seen improvements in the availability of certain doses and is optimistic about scaling up manufacturing for oral therapies [5][10]. Clinical Development - The company is advancing its clinical programs, with data from Phase 3 trials for orforglipron expected in 2025. Eli Lilly is also exploring the potential of combination therapies, such as retatrutide, which is anticipated to serve patients with higher BMIs [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing variability in out-of-pocket purchasing across different geographies, with notable differences in countries like Brazil. The launch of LillyDirect is helping to improve patient connectivity and adoption [7][11]. Financial Projections - Eli Lilly's revenue projections show significant growth, with expected revenues of 34.1 billion in 2023, increasing to 62.2billionby2026.TheEBITDAisprojectedtorisefrom62.2 billion by 2026. The EBITDA is projected to rise from 9.0 billion in 2023 to $26.3 billion in 2026 [16].