石油化工行业周报：OPEC+会议扰动市场，油价有所回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [2]. Core Views - The international oil prices have slightly declined, but the focus remains on maintaining relatively high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [16]. - The oil service sector is experiencing a decline in active drilling rigs in North America, while OPEC countries continue to see growth in drilling platforms, which is favorable for oil service companies in the Middle East [17]. - The refining sector shows potential for performance recovery due to expanding price differentials for various products, indicating a positive outlook for refining companies [19]. - The polyester sector is witnessing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a recommendation to focus on specific companies as their performance recovery potential increases [24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined approximately 2.28% during the week of June 3-7, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 1.1 percentage points [8]. - Key stocks that led the sector included China National Offshore Oil Corporation, while stocks like ST Xinchao and Runbei Hangke saw significant declines [10]. Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - International oil prices saw a slight decrease, with Brent crude settling at approximately $79.62 per barrel and WTI at about $75.53 per barrel, reflecting weekly declines of 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively [12]. - The EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow, reaching 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 [16]. Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America has decreased, with a notable year-on-year decline, while OPEC countries have increased their drilling platforms [17]. Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 106 yuan and 36 yuan per ton, respectively [19]. - The price differentials for various refining products have expanded, indicating a potential recovery in refining company performance [19]. Polyester Sector - The average price for POY in East China is approximately 7,850 yuan per ton, with a price differential of about 1,211 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend [24]. - Inventory levels have increased, suggesting a potential improvement in the supply-demand balance for polyester products [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes within the oil and petrochemical sector, including focusing on major energy state-owned enterprises and oil service companies, as well as companies in the polyester and refining sectors [32].