AFR(SZ:300620) Haitong Securities·2024-06-12 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its revenue growth despite facing challenges in profitability due to external factors such as geopolitical conflicts and market competition. The thin-film lithium niobate technology is positioned for significant growth, particularly in the laser radar sector, which is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [12][21]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 710 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 49.4% to 60 million yuan. The gross margin was 34.5%, down from the previous year [3][13]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 160 million yuan, a 3.38% increase, but the net profit dropped by 58.1% to 6 million yuan [3]. Revenue Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 934 million yuan in 2024, 1.298 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.705 billion yuan in 2026. The net profit is forecasted to be 105 million yuan in 2024, 143 million yuan in 2025, and 186 million yuan in 2026 [4][28]. Segment Analysis - The revenue from the fiber laser device segment is projected to be 555 million yuan in 2024, with a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation range of 44.38 to 55.47 billion yuan. The optical communication device segment is expected to generate 255 million yuan in revenue, with a P/S valuation of 22.92 to 28.02 billion yuan [6][25]. - The lithium niobate modulator segment is anticipated to generate 223 million yuan in 2025, with a P/S valuation of 22.34 to 31.28 billion yuan [14]. Valuation - The comprehensive valuation of the company is estimated to be between 93.12 billion yuan and 118.59 billion yuan, translating to a per-share value of 37.28 to 47.47 yuan [27]. R&D and Cost Management - The company has increased its R&D investment significantly, reaching 124 million yuan in 2023, a 23.99% increase year-on-year. The sales expense ratio is 1.71%, while the management expense ratio is 12.15% [39].