宏观策略周报

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in June, marking its first rate cut since 2019, as inflation in the Eurozone continued to decline without significant wage growth impact [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has seen fluctuating expectations for rate cuts, with the market now pricing in one rate cut for the year, down from earlier expectations of three [7][8] - Domestic market risk sentiment has further declined, with the stock-bond yield spread rising to a historical level of 82.2% [12] Group 2: Domestic Economic Tracking - In May, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.6% year-on-year, a significant rebound driven by strong demand from major trading partners, particularly in sectors like ships, integrated circuits, and automobiles [82] - The domestic real estate market showed a decline in transaction volume, with average daily sales in 30 major cities dropping by 26.37% month-on-month [85] - The domestic pork prices surged to a one-and-a-half-year high, with weekly average prices increasing by 7.33% [29] Group 3: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The A-share market has experienced a three-week adjustment, with the main board outperforming the ChiNext, and a noticeable increase in daily trading volume [16] - The asset allocation strategy suggests maintaining a 25% allocation to stocks, 15% to government bonds, and 40% to cash, reflecting a cautious approach amid current market conditions [65] - The domestic bond market has continued to rise, supported by a loosening liquidity environment, although the upside potential is limited due to the delayed rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [19]