宏观经济评论：美股宏观策略周报

Economic Data - April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly dropped to 8.059 million, significantly below the expected 8.35 million, indicating a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labor market[5] - May non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, surpassing the analyst expectation of 180,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4%[6] - Year-on-year average hourly earnings growth was 4.1%, exceeding both the previous value and expectations of 3.9%[6] Labor Market Insights - Discrepancies between employer surveys and household surveys suggest that actual employment conditions may not be as robust as reported[6] - Approximately 200,000 jobs in the employment data are estimated rather than statistically counted, leading to concerns that actual job growth may be significantly lower than reported[6] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Canada and the European Central Bank both cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with the U.S. expected to maintain its rates due to stronger economic performance[7] - U.S. consumer spending is currently driven by wealth and income rather than credit, indicating a shift in consumer behavior post-pandemic[7] Investment Strategies - High interest rates are impacting housing and manufacturing employment, but new government spending in infrastructure and technology sectors is expected to sustain economic growth[9] - Concerns about potential recession factors include declining corporate profit margins, increased reliance on credit by low-income consumers, and rising overdue payments[10] Company-Specific Insights - Dell's AI server business is showing significant growth, with projected revenue increases of 10.5% in FY2025 and 6.6% in FY2026, leading to an upward revision of target prices[16] - HP Enterprise reported strong performance in AI server business, exceeding Wall Street expectations for revenue growth and earnings per share[17]