Great Wall Securities·2024-06-12 12:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for BYD, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [19]. Core Insights - BYD's sales in May 2024 reached 331,817 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.13% and a month-on-month increase of 5.93%. This continues the trend of exceeding 300,000 units sold for three consecutive months [2][8]. - The company has a diverse brand strategy, with the Dynasty and Ocean series contributing significantly to sales, accounting for 95.38% of total new energy vehicle sales in May [8][10]. - The report forecasts BYD's revenue to grow from 602.3 billion CNY in 2023 to 949.6 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3% [5][15]. Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 424,061 - 2023A: 602,315 - 2024E: 776,324 - 2025E: 949,600 - 2026E: 1,120,420 [5][15] - Net Profit (CNY million): - 2022A: 16,622 - 2023A: 30,041 - 2024E: 37,463 - 2025E: 45,096 - 2026E: 54,856 [5][15] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 14.6% - 2023A: 20.8% - 2024E: 23.9% - 2025E: 22.0% - 2026E: 20.9% [5][15] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 5.71 - 2023A: 10.32 - 2024E: 12.87 - 2025E: 15.49 - 2026E: 18.84 [5][15] Sales Performance - In May 2024, BYD's total production of new energy vehicles was approximately 344,008 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.69% [1]. - The Dynasty series sold 172,119 units, while the Ocean series sold 143,108 units, reflecting a strong performance across both brands [8][10]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new models, including the Qin L DM-i and the Sea Leopard 06, which are expected to further stimulate sales [11]. Market Expansion - BYD is actively expanding its international presence, with May exports reaching 37,499 units, accounting for 11.30% of total sales [11]. - The company has launched new models in various international markets, including the BYD SHARK in Mexico and the SEAL U DM-i in Europe, aimed at meeting local consumer demands [11][12].