Youngsun Intelligent(603901) 广发证券·2024-06-12 13:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the market by over 15% in the next 12 months [3][22]. Core Insights - The beverage sales in China have shown continuous growth, with retail sales reaching 23 billion yuan in April 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The number of enterprises in the beverage sector has also increased from 5,438 in February 2021 to 5,905 in April 2024, indicating a growing demand for new production capacity and equipment [8][20]. - The fixed asset investment in the beverage manufacturing industry is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 21.8% in the first four months, suggesting a strong demand for beverage packaging equipment [20]. - The company, Yongchuang Intelligent, is positioned as a leading player in the packaging equipment sector and is likely to benefit from the capital expenditure expansion in the beverage industry. The company reported new order amounts of approximately 3.95 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased demand in the beverage sector and improved market share [21]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 295 million yuan in 2024, 346 million yuan in 2025, and 409 million yuan in 2026. The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a target price of 12.10 yuan per share [21]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 2,749 million yuan in 2022 to 5,349 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [9]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 317 million yuan in 2022 to 658 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong operational performance [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover from a low of 71 million yuan in 2023 to 409 million yuan by 2026, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [9].