6月美联储议息会议解读：降息将至未至

Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once this year, with a projected cut of 25 basis points (bp) [3] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 5.25%-5.5% [3] - The median forecast for the 2024 target rate is 5.1%, indicating a slight increase from March [3] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The Fed has raised its inflation forecast for 2024, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) expected to be 2.6% [4] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 4% [4] - Recent data shows a gradual decline in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth, indicating easing price pressures [3] Group 3: Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is maintained at 2.1%, reflecting steady economic activity [4] - Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is continuing at a robust pace, although it is expected to be lower than last year's levels [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slightly pessimistic outlook, with most regions reporting only modest economic growth [22] Group 4: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a September rate cut have slightly decreased from 60% to 57% following the Fed's announcement [5] - High interest rates and strict credit conditions may continue to suppress credit growth and impact real estate sales and business investments [5] - Risks include potential unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy, and greater-than-expected economic downturns [28]