2024年5月外贸数据点评：出口加速进口下滑，顺差再回升

Trade Data Analysis - In May 2024, China's total trade value reached 3.7 trillion RMB, an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with exports at 2.15 trillion RMB (up 11.2%) and imports at 1.56 trillion RMB (up 5.2%)[38] - The trade surplus in May 2024 was 826.22 billion USD, up from 723.52 billion USD in April and 651.52 billion USD in the same period last year[48] - Exports to major countries improved, with ASEAN showing significant growth, while the US saw a slight decline in PMI by 0.5 percentage points to 48.7%[41] - Among major export commodities, only automobile exports declined, but still maintained a 17% growth rate, while furniture, home appliances, and mobile phones saw expanded growth[31] Import Trends - Import growth slowed, with major import commodities (excluding automobiles and copper) showing a decline in both quantity and value[38] - Mechanical and electrical imports also fell, contributing to the overall decline in imports[32] Market Outlook - The macro environment is expected to stabilize, with both the economy and capital markets likely to experience a dual recovery in 2024[13] - The high trade surplus is expected to continue, supporting the stability of China's foreign exchange reserves and the RMB in international financial markets[22] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China's monetary policy[23] Industry Ratings - The report uses a relative rating system, with "Overweight" indicating industry fundamentals are favorable and expected to outperform the benchmark index by 5-20%[16]