2024年5月通胀数据点评：CPI走势平稳，PPI同比回升

CPI Analysis - In May 2024, the CPI year-on-year remained stable at 0.3%, slightly below market expectations[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.0%, contributing approximately 0.37 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, adding about 0.68 percentage points to the CPI[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.1%, a slight decrease compared to the average decline of 0.2% over the past decade[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[1] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 1.1 percentage points to -1.4%, slightly above market expectations, driven by rising prices in non-ferrous metals, black metals, and coal[4] - Production material prices decreased by 1.6%, while living material prices fell by 0.8%[4] - Month-on-month, the PPI shifted from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the end of six consecutive months of decline[4] Market Outlook - The CPI-PPI gap narrowed to 1.7 percentage points in May, indicating that CPI continues to be higher than PPI[5] - With rising pork prices expected to support food prices, the CPI is anticipated to rise steadily in June 2024[5] - The PPI is expected to continue its trend of narrowing declines in June due to lower base effects from the previous year[5]