海外观察：2024年5月美国CPI及6月FOMC会议：再通胀风险如何影响美联储降息预期？

Inflation Data - In May, the US CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, down from 3.4% previously and in line with expectations[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained unchanged at 0%, compared to a previous increase of 0.3% and an expected increase of 0.1%[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.6% previously and below the expected 3.5%[1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% for the seventh consecutive time[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts are more optimistic than the Fed's dot plot, with a potential reduction of 25 basis points in 2024, which is two fewer cuts than previously predicted[20] Core Inflation Trends - Future declines in energy prices may continue to lower overall CPI, but core inflation is likely to rebound in Q3 due to rising rent prices and the unsustainable drop in auto insurance prices[2][3] - Rent prices, a major contributor to CPI, are expected to rebound starting in Q3, driven by a lagging trend in owner-equivalent rent[3] Neutral Rate Adjustments - The Fed has raised its neutral rate expectation from 2.6% to 2.8%, indicating a tighter future monetary policy environment[4] - This adjustment suggests that even if the policy rate remains unchanged, the current stance is more accommodative, potentially limiting future increases in US Treasury prices[4] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in Chinese export prices could impact US inflation rates, alongside geopolitical risks[5]