Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - In April 2024, there is a notable increase in preference for fixed-income products among residents, driven by a decline in risk appetite due to market volatility and regulatory changes [3][6]. - The report suggests increasing holdings in brokerage firms with stronger advisory capabilities, particularly in the context of new regulations that favor such firms [68]. Summary by Sections 1. Preference for Fixed-Income Products - In April 2024, residents increased their allocation to public funds, with total public fund shares rising by 4.84% month-on-month. Equity fund shares decreased by 0.02%, while bond fund shares increased by 7.78% [3][7]. - There was a decrease in private fund allocations, with a month-on-month decline of 1.92% and a drop in newly issued private fund sizes by 2.22% [13]. - Both fixed-income and equity private asset management plans saw increased allocations, with fixed-income plans growing at 6.05%, outpacing equity plans at 1.43% [20]. - Insurance companies reported a year-on-year premium income increase of 4.67%, although this was a decline of 0.82% compared to the previous month [24]. 2. Decline in Resident Risk Appetite - The report highlights a further decline in residents' risk appetite, influenced by fears surrounding delisting and stock price volatility. This has led to a stronger preference for stable fixed-income assets [26][27]. - The expected yield for residents remains low, with the central bank indicating that long-term bond yields will stabilize, but uncertainty persists regarding future interest rate trends [26]. 3. Bond Fund Yield Increase and Weakening of Equity ETF Sales - Bond fund yields have significantly improved, with the bond fund index rising by 0.45% in April 2024, while equity fund indices showed modest increases [30][61]. - New regulations have weakened sales incentives for equity ETFs, leading to a slowdown in their issuance. The new rules restrict the use of trading commissions for sales incentives, impacting the motivation for selling newly issued funds [64]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in brokerage firms with strong advisory capabilities, specifically naming China International Capital Corporation, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities as favorable options [68].
投资银行业与经纪业行业事件快评：2024年4月财富管理业务月报-风险偏好再度下行，固收产品持续增配
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-06-13 06:31