美国5月非农点评：新增超预期，失业率新高

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.0%[39] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.7% to 62.5%, with a drop of 250,000 in the labor force count[39] - Average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, with a nominal wage of $34.91, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4%[8] Market Implications - The stronger-than-expected employment data has pushed back the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 68.68% to 50.45%[42] - The likelihood of a November rate cut stands at 64.44%, indicating increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[42] Labor Market Trends - The service sector added 204,000 jobs, with healthcare and education contributing 86,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality saw a significant increase of 42,000 jobs[41] - Job openings in the U.S. are currently at a vacancy rate of 4.8%, indicating a cooling demand for labor[51] Economic Risks - The broader unemployment rate (U6) remains at 7.4%, with an increase in the number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, suggesting a decline in job quality[55] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakening, with indicators such as the total separation rate and voluntary quit rate remaining low, reflecting reduced labor market fluidity[55]