6月美国FOMC点评：点阵图符合市场预期

Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in September is significant if the core CPI shows a month-on-month decline of 0.3% for 2-3 consecutive months[1] - The median forecast for rate cuts has decreased from 75 basis points (bp) to 25 bp, indicating a tightening in the dot plot[2] - The dot plot reflects the current economic data and may change with future data, serving as a confirmation of market expectations rather than a definitive plan[2] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is 2.84% year-on-year, which is above the 2% threshold, suggesting a stable economic environment[3] - April's CPI year-on-year is at 3.3%, remaining within the historical normal range of 3-3.8% for 11 consecutive months[3] - A preventive rate cut is deemed reasonable due to the current economic cycle characteristics, including a decline in income growth for middle and high-income groups[4] Bond Market Insights - The lower limit for the US 10-year Treasury yield is maintained at 3.65-3.85%, with an upper limit of 4.6-4.85%[6] - The likelihood of the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5% again this year is low, as the market does not anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected inflation abroad and the possibility of an economic recession[7] - The current economic environment suggests that while short-term recession risks are low, long-term market bubbles may re-emerge, similar to the tech bubble of 1997-2000[26]