Changjiang Media(SH:600757) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-06-13 13:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a reasonable per-share value of 9.71 yuan for the company based on the DDM method [37]. Core Insights - The company has a stable dividend policy, with dividends exceeding 400 million yuan annually over the past four years, and a dividend payout ratio of 47.8% in 2023, ranking 8th among 18 local state-owned publishing companies [10][24]. - The company is a leading cultural enterprise in Hubei province, with a complete publishing and distribution industry chain, and has been expanding into digital reading, online education, and cultural creative sectors [11][40]. - The high school market for educational materials is expected to grow, with significant demand for market-oriented supplementary materials, which have a higher unit value compared to those for primary and junior high school levels [33][35][46]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue from educational materials is projected to grow from 5,114.1 million yuan in 2023 to 6,411.2 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% [21]. - The overall revenue is expected to increase from 6,758.8 million yuan in 2023 to 8,161.3 million yuan in 2026, with a steady growth rate across various segments [21]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin across its business segments, with the gross margin for educational materials projected to remain around 32.3% [36]. Business Development - The company is actively enhancing the quality of its publications and advancing its internal digital transformation to improve operational efficiency [4][26]. - New business initiatives, including research and study programs and after-school services, are being steadily developed, supported by favorable policies [5][39]. - The company has a strong management team with backgrounds in education and publishing, ensuring stability and strategic direction [11][32].