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钢铁行业周报：短期淡季需求调整，周产量环比下降
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-06-14 00:31

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term seasonal demand is declining, leading to an increase in total inventory. However, the overall demand for steel in 2024 is not expected to be pessimistic due to steady growth in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may offset the downturn in the real estate sector [3][7]. - The report highlights that the real estate sector remains a significant drag on steel demand, but its contribution has decreased to below 20% in recent years. Recent favorable policies from the central bank and local governments are expected to reduce the negative impact from real estate [3][7]. - The report anticipates a contraction in steel supply due to ongoing production controls and a focus on energy efficiency improvements in the industry [3][7]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The average consumption of five major steel products was 8.92 million tons, a decrease of 1.74% month-on-month and 9.75% year-on-year. Rebar consumption was 2.31 million tons, down 7.51% month-on-month and 24.35% year-on-year [11][17]. - Total steel production last week was 8.96 million tons, a decrease of 0.75% month-on-month and 3.15% year-on-year. The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 81.5%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [21][28]. - The report notes that the production profit for rebar decreased to 160 CNY/ton, while the profit for hot-rolled coils increased to 170 CNY/ton [32][34]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 22 CNY/ton to 841 CNY/ton, while coke prices remained stable at 2,110 CNY/ton [38][40]. - Iron ore port inventory increased to 149.28 million tons, up 0.46% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in supply [44]. Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong product structures and technological advantages, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, as well as companies in the special steel sector like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [3][7].