XCC(603667) 国投证券·2024-06-14 05:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, with a 12-month target price of 22.05 yuan, implying a 35X PE ratio for 2025 [8][35] Core Views - The company's core growth drivers are in the automotive, wind power, and robotics sectors, with a focus on new energy vehicles and humanoid robotics [8][28][34] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.39, 3.75, and 4.21 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with growth rates of 9.0%, 10.7%, and 12.2% respectively [35] - Net profit is forecasted to be 180, 230, and 280 million yuan in 2024-2026, with growth rates of 30.4%, 29.0%, and 17.8% respectively [35] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 37.3X, 28.9X, and 24.5X, which are close to industry averages [8][35] Financial Performance - Revenue in 2023 was 3.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while net profit was 140 million yuan, down 6.5% [4] - The company's gross margin has been under pressure, declining from 22.91% in 2018 to 17.54% in 2023, mainly due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [75][78] - Operating cash flow remained stable, with a net cash flow ratio of around 1, despite fluctuations caused by the pandemic and subsidiary acquisitions [81][84] Business Segments - The company's three main business segments are bearings, automotive components, and thermal management systems, accounting for 57.6%, 13.8%, and 26.6% of revenue in 2023 respectively [64][74] - Bearings: The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of bearing rings and has expanded into high-end bearing products for new energy vehicles and wind power [67][71] - Automotive components: The company has developed safety airbag gas generator components and power drive system parts, with significant growth potential in the new energy vehicle sector [72] - Thermal management systems: The company focuses on new energy vehicle thermal management systems, with a significant increase in unit value compared to traditional fuel vehicles [73] Industry and Market - The global bearing market is expected to grow steadily, with the automotive sector accounting for 42.1% of downstream applications [91][93] - The company has a strong presence in the wind power sector, with its high-end wind turbine bearing rollers achieving import substitution and serving major domestic and international customers [71] - In the robotics sector, the company has developed a full range of reducer bearings and is expected to benefit from the future mass production of humanoid robots [34] Strategic Development - The company has adopted a platform-based strategy, leveraging its core bearing technology to expand into multiple fields, including automotive, industrial, and robotics [28][34] - Through acquisitions and investments, the company has strengthened its global presence, with overseas sales accounting for 45.46% of total revenue in 2023 [81][84] - The company has a strong R&D focus, with R&D expenses increasing from 31 million yuan in 2016 to over 100 million yuan in 2023, maintaining a R&D expense ratio of over 3% [85] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to slower-than-expected progress in humanoid robotics, which could impact its future growth [1] - Rising raw material costs and intensified competition in traditional businesses could also pose challenges to the company's profitability [18]